26 sierpnia 2010

Obligacje amerykańskie 10 latki update

Nawiązując do wpisu:Mały szczyt na obligacjach? US 10Y NOTE YIELD (10US) daily http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/3724/nameo.png weekly: http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/6851/namemf.png US 10Y Note Future (TY.F) daily http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/764/nameg.png weekly http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/4712/namej.png Dodatkowo zalecam ciekawe fakty:
Don’t Buy That Treasury Bond. Another week later, and Treasury bond prices have raced up to even dizzier heights, breaking more records for over valuation. According to the Investment Company Institute, outflows from equity mutual funds over the last two years totaled $232 billion, while inflows into bond funds soared to a staggering $559 billion. Today, “bond funds” ranked with “Miss Universe” and “Lindsey Lohan” among Yahoo’s top ten search terms. Companies, like FedEx, are looking to issue corporate bonds maturing in 100 years. No doubt the prospect of 80 million baby boomers bailing on equities so they can become coupon clippers for life is providing some extra juice for this market.

In a Wall Street Journal article last week, the Wharton School’s Jeremy Siegel pointed out that ten year inflation protected securities (TIPS) with yields under 1% are selling at a PE multiple equivalent of 100 times, the same valuation that dotcom stocks saw a decade ago (click here). Bonds with four year maturities have negative real yields.

The last time this happened, in 1955, ten year bonds brought in an annual return of only 1.9% for the following decade. The potential capital losses for these securities now loom large. In the meantime, the short Treasury ETF (TBT) trades at $30.60.


2 komentarze:

  1. SiP - gdybyś tylko nadmienił kilka słów jak odczytywać te wykresy - tzn ich wpływ na rynek akcji ipt, byłbym wdzięczny.
    Ps. Bardzo fajny blog pozdrawiam

  2. @Anonimowy
    Szczyt / Mini szczyt na obligacjach powinien oznaczać zarazem okolice dołka / mini dołka cen akcji.


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