09 listopada 2010

Zaczyna brakować pieniędzy w Indiach, bańka pęknie?

Dosyć przewrotny tytuł wpisu, ale tak to z grubsza wygląda.
W indiach szaleje wysoka inflacja, najwyższa po Argentynie w G20. Stopy procentowe wynoszą ponad 10 procent, a jednak banki udzielają ogromnych ilości kredytów. Wszystko do czasu, bo jak zajrzy się pod powierzchnię widać wrzącą bańkę, która w każdej chwili może pęknąć. Skąd banki biorą pieniądze? Od zachodnich inwestorów, a pożyczki denominowane są w dolarach (przepis na kryzys numer 1). Czemu tak robią? Bo na lokalnym rynku nie ma pieniędzy. Hindusi likwidują ogromne ilości depozytów by uciec przez galopującą inflacją (widać że RBI nie daje sobie rady), i gonią np akcje. A jest co bo w Indiach trwa wielka prywatyzacja. Zresztą całą gonitwę i piękną bańkę widać po wykresie BSE30:
direct link
Co więcej, banki pozbywają się masowo obligacji rządowych by tylko uzyskać gotówkę, która może zaspokoić szalejący popyt na tamtym rynku. Wszyscy starają się przegonić ponad 10% inflację i przelewają pieniądze w różnego rodzaju aktywa, w tym rynki akcji. Problem jest taki, że zaczyna brakować gotówki i już tylko zagranica ratuje Indie. Co się stanie jak popyt się skończy? Wielkie KAbuum. więcej na bloom.
Powiązanym tematem jest kontrola przepływu kapitałów. Wszyscy wiemy, że dodruk FED powoduje puchnięcie globalnej bańki, szczególnie na EM. W związku z tym Bank Światowy zaleca gospodarkom wschodzącym wprowadzenie kontroli kapitału. Takie działania np w 1997 roku były wyśmiewane, teraz mamy je na globalną skalę. Takie kontrole bądź je usprawnić zamierza wprowadzić wiele gospodarek, w tym Chiny. Więcej na bloom. Walka Chin z bańką na ichniejszym rynku przynosi efekty, widać to szczególnie po zachowaniu rynków w porównaniu z zachowaniem rynku indyjskiego co prezentuje ten wykres:
Wszystko dlatego, iż Chiny przynajmniej starają się ograniczyć bańkę, w przeciwieństwie do Indii. A jak rośnie bańka, w krajach które nie wprowadziły żadnej kontroli kapitałów i są postrzegane pozytywnie oraz nie są w regionie kojarzonym z kryzysem (w przeciwieństwie do Polski i regionu CEE)? Właśnie tak jak w Turcji: direct link.

14 komentarzy:

  1. November 4 – Bloomberg (Rakteem Katakey and Rajesh Kumar Singh): “Coal India Ltd. surged 40% on its first trading day to become the world’s second-most valuable coal miner after investors bid for 15 times the shares sold in the country’s largest initial public offering.”

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  2. November 4 – Bloomberg (Rajhkumar K Shaaw): “Indian stocks climbed, driving the benchmark index to a record close, as foreign buying of the equities surged to an all-time high… This year’s 20% rally makes the Sensex the best performer among the world’s 10 biggest stock markets. Foreign fund inflows have surged 80%...”

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  3. wysłałem info do Misha, zobaczymy czy skomentuje.

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  4. wysłałem info do Misha, zobaczymy czy skomentuje.

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  5. "Autor zapewne miał na myśli nowelizacje rekomendacji SII. Tylko z jakiego tajemnego źródła czerpie on informacje o tym, że te zmiany wejdą od 1 stycznia 2011? "
    Nie mam pojęcia:(

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  6. "Recommendation SII(effective January 2011) mandates that banks should have no more than 50% mortgage portfolios denominated in foreign currencies and effectively mandates (at least for the not very wealthy customers) that mortgages be issued for no more than 25 years."

    Autor zapewne miał na myśli nowelizacje rekomendacji SII. Tylko z jakiego tajemnego źródła czerpie on informacje o tym, że te zmiany wejdą od 1 stycznia 2011?

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  7. Dzięki.
    Podawaj w przyszłości linka do materiału.
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/housing-bubble-and-currency-controls-in.html

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  8. fajnie gosciu opisal nasz rynek nieruchomosci i ta plenta na koncu ze nbp i rzad maja przeciwne zdania i trzeba to jakos rozwiazac. BGK?

    In Poland, there has been a bubble in real estate since 2006-2007 that never really popped. Condo prices in downtown Warsaw (capital of Poland) are comparable to prices in Berlin and Vienna, and of course incomes and standard of living are way way lower.

    Real estate prices have fallen 10-15% from the peak alright, but incidentally our currency has recently strengthened, so the net result from the international perspective is nearly zero. Real estate prices has been fueled, as is typical for the whole region of central-eastern Europe and Baltic States, by cheap capital denominated in CHF (Swiss Francs) and EUR (earlier in the decade USD), coordinated mainly by Austrian and Italian banks and originating in Switzerland and ECB.

    With this situation, there is a growing pressure, at least a year running, from our central bank and partly from the finance ministry to curb the inflow of cheap money and seemingly - although it is never openly admitted - to try and prick the real estate bubble, the bubble that has indeed reached a ridiculous size and is pushing more and more families into debt servitude.

    There has been a series of banking regulations ("recommendations") issued by Komisja Nadzoru Finansowego (Commision of Financial Supervision) that targets inflows of cheap money. The curbing is effected mainly by reining in the mortgage market, that has been - again, as is typical for the whole region - the main venue of external capital inflow. Recently there have been two important regulations issued on that matter. Recommendation SII(effective January 2011) mandates that banks should have no more than 50% mortgage portfolios denominated in foreign currencies and effectively mandates (at least for the not very wealthy customers) that mortgages be issued for no more than 25 years. Recommendation T (effective September 2010) mandates that LTV for forex mortgages should never exceed 80% and that banks must consider harsh changes in the interbank market rates when qualifying customers for such loans.

    It has been also recently discussed that possibly somewhere in 2011 a regulation will be passed that completely cuts people off from foreign currency mortgages unless they actually have assets (other than real estate itself) that can balance the Forex risk or Forex earnings.

    Such regulation would effectively almost totally cut off cheap external mortgage financing.

    There has also recently been a change in language of Polish banking regulators. It is now quite openly said that the practice of selling very long term, adjustable rate mortgages denominated in foreign currency should be literally "brutally and completely curbed" (words of the chairman of NBP, our central bank).

    This is a process that is slowly but regularly unfolding and will surely take some more time; cheap EUR mortgages are still widely available and will be at least until the end of 2010. But it seems that the process of curbing capital inflows is gaining pace rapidly in Poland and it should bear very concrete fruits in 2011 and 2012,
    especially taking into account recent acceleration in Fed lunacy that could (and I expect it will) spur counter reactions in my country analogous to what is happening in Korea or Brazil. There are no reactions as of yet, but I expect them soon.

    It should perhaps be added that Polish banking regulator bodies and central bank are quite independent from the government and it seems that this independence is factual, not merely statutory; there have been many episodes in the last decade that NBP was in harsh conflict with the govt.

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  9. Widać wyraźnie iż napływa kapitału nie idzie w dług (pożyczki) a w rynki akcji, stąd bańka u nich na BSE30
    http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/lgHbCoX4dzuz2mujO3XkBw?feat=directlink

    Wproawdzono szereg restrykcji na rynku dlugu:
    Unlike some other emerging market economies, the government has not taken any steps to deter these
    inflows. For one, this reflects that there are already significant capital controls in place in India, which
    include limits on foreign ownership (FDI), on external commercial borrowing, and on investment in debt.
    In fact the government in September raised the ceiling for foreign bond investments, although they were
    careful to restrict the additional new inflows to priority areas such as infrastructure. However, the Indian
    authorities are becoming more vocal about the potential implications of excessive capital inflows for asset
    and goods prices and the RBI in its latest monetary policy statement said that “they will take actions as
    warranted with a view to mitigating any potentially disruptive effects of lumpy and volatile capital flows
    and sharp movements in domestic liquidity conditions.”

    nie wierz zatem komus iz i u nas WIG tak wystrzeli.

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  10. Mamy kontynuacje brak gotówki

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-13/cash-crunch-means-rbi-seen-buying-300-billion-rupees-of-debt-india-credit.html

    Cash Crunch Means RBI Seen Buying 300 Billion Rupees of Debt: India Credit
    India’s government may buy more bonds from the market to ease the worst cash crunch in 10 years, according to companies obliged to bid at debt auctions.

    The yield on the benchmark 2020 security has dropped 10 basis points from a 26-month high of 8.21 percent in the past week as the Reserve Bank of India bought back 101 billion rupees ($2.2 billion) of securities on behalf of the finance ministry. Policy makers may purchase 300 billion rupees of notes for the rest of the financial year ending March 31, according to ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd. and IDBI Gilts Ltd., including 120 billion rupees tomorrow, the most this quarter.

    “The banking system is short of liquidity, and so the RBI may want to address that through bond buybacks,” Manoj Swain, chief executive officer at Morgan Stanley India Primary Dealer Pvt. in Mumbai, said in a phone interview yesterday, without specifying how much policy makers would purchase.

    Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said Dec. 9 he is “deeply conscious” of the shortage of cash in the banking system, even as inflation stays above the central bank’s “tolerance level.” A government report today will show benchmark inflation cooled to 7.45 percent in November from 8.58 percent in October, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey, compared with 8.1 percent in Russia, 5.1 percent in China and 5.6 percent in Brazil.

    The central bank injected an average 818 billion rupees every day into banks this quarter, the most since 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The amount the lenders borrowed is an indication of the shortage of funds in the financial system. The government raised 677.2 billion rupees by auctioning third-generation phone licenses in May and 385.4 billion rupees by selling Internet permits a month later, draining cash from lenders.

    Yields Climb

    The cost of fixing rates on money for three months surged 293 basis points, or 2.93 percentage points, this year to 6.88 percent in the interest-rate swaps market, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Overnight loan rates between banks averaged 6.6 percent this month, twice the rate a year ago.

    The yield on the 7.8 percent bond maturing in May 2020 climbed 2 basis points to 8.11 percent yesterday on concern tax payments will deplete cash in the system. Such payments will total 500 billion rupees this week, according to ICICI Securities Primary Dealership.

    “Bond purchases may be a key tool policy makers will look at, with corporate-tax outflows set to add to the liquidity tightness,” Namrata Padhye, a fixed-income strategist at Mumbai-based primary dealer IDBI Gilts, said in an interview yesterday.

    Bond Returns

    India’s three-month Treasury bill yields have more than doubled to 7.16 percent this year as the Reserve Bank lifted borrowing costs by 150 basis points, the most of any central bank in Asia, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The comparable measure climbed 14 basis points to 10.66 percent in Brazil and 8 basis points to 0.12 percent in the U.S. The rate on similar notes from the People’s Bank of China rose 115 basis points to 2.96 percent.

    The difference in yields between India’s debt due in a decade and similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries was 477 basis points yesterday, compared with 372 at the start of the year.

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  11. India’s bonds have returned 4.1 percent this year, the fourth-worst performance among 10 local-currency debt markets tracked by HSBC Holdings Plc. Investors in Indonesia’s debt assets earned 22.4 percent, the most in the region, according to Europe’s largest bank.

    The rupee, which has appreciated 3 percent this year, dropped 0.2 percent yesterday to 45.14 per dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    Fiscal Deficit

    The cost of protecting the debt of government-owned State Bank of India, which some investors perceive as a proxy for the nation, has dropped 77 basis points from this year’s peak of 239 on optimism the nation will meet its fiscal-deficit target, according to the data provider CMA. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should the bank fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt.

    The government plans to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.5 percent of gross domestic product in the current financial year from 6.9 percent last year, the sharpest cut in three years, helped by sales of stakes in state-run companies. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is seeking to raise 400 billion rupees by selling such assets in the year to March to help fund the construction of roads, ports and hospitals.

    “The central bank will do more buybacks and try to infuse some money,” Prasanna Ananthasubramaniam, a Mumbai-based chief economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, said in an interview yesterday.

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  12. India Acts to Cool Onion Prices Amid Anger at Accelerating Food Inflation
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-23/india-seeks-to-rein-in-onion-prices-bans-exports-as-inflation-accelerates.html

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  13. Food, Fuel Inflation Hits India; Primary Price Index Up 15%, Credit Expansion Up 23%
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/food-fuel-inflation-hits-india-primary.html

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  14. Sensex Rises for Second Year, Is Best Performer Among 10 Largest Markets
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-31/sensex-rises-for-second-year-is-best-performer-among-10-largest-markets.html

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