08 grudnia 2010

Muni czyli potencjalny trup - odc 3

Serii o potencjalnym trupie zwanym Muni należy się aktualizacja, nawet wykres dnia poniżej:
Jednym słowem wyprzedaż trwa,a MUB pobił poprzednie dołki. Wszystko za sprawą polityków w USA. Sprawa jest niebagatelna. Pisałem wcześniej o programie BAB. Nie mam tu na myśli kobiet;) a Build America Bonds. W ramach programu rząd daje inwestorowi tax credit w wysokości 35% (ulga podatkowa). Problem jest jednak zasadniczy. W ramach ogłoszonych założeń co do przedłużenia cięć podatkowych Bush (republikanie), jak i przedłużenia o kolejny rok zasiłków dla bezrobotnych (demokraci), nie przejdzie prawdopodobnie przedłużenie programu BAB (z powodu republikanów). Innymi słowy program wygasa od nowego roku. Zatem to pierwszy powód wyprzedaży. Drugi powód to właśnie przedłużenie niższych podatków. Innymi słowy skoro inwestorzy indywidualni będą mieć niższy podatek, to po co inwestować w papier dający ulgę podatkową? Bez sensu. Mamy zatem dwa silne powody wyprzedaży obligacji municypialnych. Trzeci powód to ich jakość i możliwość bankructwa poszczególnych miast czego powinni bać się inwestorzy. Niektórzy spekulują, iż to właśnie te papiery będą obiektem skupu w ramach kolejnego QE. Na koniec jeszcze paskudnie wyglądająca rentowność (yields, oprocentowanie) na samych BAB: EDIT: Ciekawy artykuł na blogach Reuters (Secret GOP plan: Push states to declare bankruptcy and smash unions) na temat Muni. Zajawka:
Congressional Republicans appear to be quietly but methodically executing a plan that would a) avoid a federal bailout of spendthrift states and b) cripple public employee unions by pushing cash-strapped states such as California and Illinois to declare bankruptcy. This may be the biggest political battle in Washington, my Capitol Hill sources tell me, of 2011. [...] BABs now account for more than 20 percent of new debt sold by states and local governments thanks to a federal rebate equal to 35 percent of interest costs on the bonds. The subsidy program ends on Dec. 31. And my Reuters colleagues report that a GOP congressional aide said Republicans “have a very firm line on BABS — we are not going to allow them to be included.” [...] In short, the lack of a BAB program would make it harder for states to borrow to cover a $140 billion budgetary shortfall next year, as estimated by the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. The long-term numbers are even scarier. Estimates of states’ unfunded liabilities to pay for retiree benefits range from $750 billion to more than $3 trillion.

15 komentarzy:

  1. Raport CBO
    http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12005/12-09-Municipalities_Brief.pdf

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cbo-recommendation-munis-%E2%80%93-default?

    http://forums.wallstreetexaminer.com/topic/916729-cbo-weighing-benefits-of-local-govt-default-or/

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  2. Some thoughts on the muni market
    https://self-evident.org/?p=870


    Bond Girl: Default and bankruptcy in the municipal bond market
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/bond-girl-default-and-bankruptcy-in.html

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  3. Get out of Muni Bond Funds Now
    http://blog.atimes.net/?p=1635

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  4. Mish o Muni:
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/bloodbath-in-muni-bond-funds-reasons.html

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  5. Report: Calif. city on brink of insolvency
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/17/AR2010121706889.html

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  6. Meredith Whitney: 50-100 Municipalities Could Default (60 Minutes Video)
    http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7166293n&tag=contentMain;contentBody

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  7. $2tn debt crisis threatens to bring down 100 US cities

    Overdrawn American cities could face financial collapse in 2011, defaulting on hundreds of billions of dollars of borrowings and derailing the US economic recovery. Nor are European cities safe – Florence, Barcelona, Madrid, Venice: all are in trouble

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/20/debt-crisis-threatens-us-cities

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  8. Meredith Whitney Talks Munis On CNBC After 60 Minutes Interview (12/21/2010)
    http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2010/12/meredith-whitney-talking-munis-on-cnbc.html

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  9. WSJ spekuluje iz FEd moze kupic muni, jesli trzeba

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704851204576034041855759156.html

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  10. December 30 – Bond Buyer (Caitlin Devitt): “Indiana cities would be allowed to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection under a bill touted by Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels. Daniels this week called the measure - Senate Bill 150 - a ‘useful mechanism’ for helping fiscally stressed cities that would help provide clarity on the topic of municipal bankruptcy.”
    http://www.bondbuyer.com/issues/119_498/indiana-chapter-9-1021621-1.html

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  11. “We have no expectation or intention to get involved in state and local debt,” Bernanke said. The Fed has no authority to buy state or local debt, he said.

    The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act prohibits the Fed from lending to an insolvent borrower and prohibits it from assisting an individual borrower unless is part of a bigger program, Bernanke said.
    http://www.bondbuyer.com/news/states_default_bernanke_conrad-1021890-1.html?CMP=OTC-RSS

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  12. House Budget Chief Ryan Says Republicans Won't Bail Out States in Default

    “Congressman Paul Ryan, the Budget Committee chairman in the U.S. House of Representatives, said Republicans don’t intend to save states from debt defaults. ‘We are not interested in a bailout,’ the Republican…said… Ryan said some states are ‘already telling us’ that, when asked how he would respond if he was told one was in danger of defaulting. U.S. states face a combined $140 billion in deficits in the next fiscal year…”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-06/house-budget-panel-s-ryan-says-republicans-won-t-save-states-from-defaults.html

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  13. To będzie bolesne:

    Moody’s to Factor Pension Gaps in States’ Ratings
    Moody’s Investors Service has begun to recalculate the states’ debt burdens in a way that includes unfunded pensions, something states and others have ardently resisted until now.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/business/27pension.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1296418551-+QILTas0DU5CeIQOCj1aXw

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  14. To byłby mały game changer:

    State bankruptcy bill imminent, Gingrich says
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Legislation that would allow U.S. states to file for bankruptcy will likely be introduced in Congress within the next month, Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House of Representatives and a powerful Republican party figure, told Reuters on Friday.

    Although Gingrich, considered responsible for the "Republican Revolution" of the 1990's, is no longer in office, he has deep ties to Congress and is frequently named as a potential presidential contender in 2012.

    For months he has championed letting states file for bankruptcy in order to handle their long-term budget problems despite resistance from states and investors in the $2.8 trillion municipal bond market.

    "We're faced with the danger that the states are going to try to show up and say to Washington: You have to give us money," Gingrich said. "And I think we have to have an alternative that allows us to say no."

    While he declined to comment on who might introduce legislation, Gingrich said there was support in both the House and the Senate. He said lawmakers have been looking into the idea for three or four months.

    Gingrich first publicly broached the idea in November, the same month the Republican party won control of the House in mid-term elections, largely on promises of reducing spending.

    But the legislation will likely face an uphill battle with Democrats still in control of the Senate and the White House.

    Because states are sovereign, they cannot declare bankruptcy as cities can, and most have provisions in their constitutions that make defaulting on debt next to impossible.

    And California -- a state which Gingrich said would likely turn to Congress for financial help along with New York and Illinois -- said on Friday it has no interest in using bankruptcy to solve its fiscal problems.

    California, the eighth largest economy in the world, would not benefit from the legislation, Treasurer Bill Lockyer said.

    "States didn't ask for it. We don't want it. We don't need it," Lockyer said. "Bankruptcy would devastate states' ability to recover from the recession and make the infrastructure investments that create good jobs."

    Struggling to close a $25 billion budget gap, California already holds Moody's Investors Service's lowest state credit rating -- a distinction it shares with Illinois.

    "Just the availability of a bankruptcy option and the potential bond default could severely damage state credit ratings and destroy the trust of bondholders," said New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli.

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  15. Last week, the municipal bond market suffered a sharp sell-off on fears of defaults by cities and other issuers.

    Representative Xavier Becerra, a member of the House Democratic leadership, said the bankruptcy idea is not new.

    "But it has never been taken seriously until now because Republicans are insistent on doing nothing to help the states," he told reporters on Friday. "I don't think that is a realistic solution. I don't believe it is a necessary solution."

    Hit hard by the deepest recession since the Great Depression, states' economies remain weak, even though the recession ended in mid-2009. State revenues are well below the levels reached before the recession, and high unemployment has driven up spending on public services.

    Lawmakers from both parties are concerned Congress may have to step in again with an expensive fix. There is little appetite on Capitol Hill for a repeat of the $814 billion economic stimulus plan passed in 2009.

    But along with the recession states are faced with permanent budget problems, including pension obligations they cannot cover estimated to total at least $700 billion.

    Filing for bankruptcy would allow them to renege on their pension promises and other obligations to state employees.

    "The very fact of the bill existing... allows governors to sit down with unions and say: 'Look you, negotiate with us or I'm taking the state into bankruptcy,'" Gingrich said.

    Under bankruptcy an employer can negate labor contract provisions, and state bankruptcy "may be a way to put additional pressure on public employee service unions to negotiate," said Howard Cure, director of municipal research at Evercore Wealth Management in New York.

    Still, said National Governors Association Executive Director Raymond Scheppach, no state is asking for the option of filing for bankruptcy in court.

    "The state would be tied up in terms of its own budgeting and running of state government. And who wants to give the responsibility of running state government to the courts?" he said.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_usa_states_bankruptcy

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