13 grudnia 2010

Tydzień 49 - wybrane fragmenty wiadomości - Noland

Jedna ze stron, które przeglądam co tydzień to wpisy Douga Noland. Poniżej przeklejam wybrane fragmenty wiadomości z zeszłego tygodnia, pełna lista wiadomości jest na linkowanej stronie.

Global Credit Market Watch:

December 8 – Bloomberg (Lee Spears and Cecile Vannucci): “Youku.com Inc. surged in the biggest gain for a U.S. initial public offering in five years and E- Commerce China Dangdang Inc. almost doubled in its debut, the latest sign of booming demand for Chinese Internet companies. Youku.com, China’s largest online video company, soared 161% to $33.44 today, after completing a $203 million IPO.”

December 9 – Bloomberg (Brendan A. McGrail and Michael McDonald): “San Francisco’s Public Utilities Commission, which supplies water to 2.5 million people in the Bay Area, postponed $524 million in competitive offerings, including $350 million in Build America Bonds, as yields soared. The average yield on taxable Build Americas climbed to 6.35 percent Dec. 7, the highest since Jan. 7…”

Global Government Finance Bubble Watch:

December 7 – Bloomberg (Cordell Eddings and Daniel Kruger): “Treasuries tumbled, pushing the two- year note yield up the most since March, after President Barack Obama agreed to extend tax cuts for two years and the three-year note sale drew the lowest demand since February… The compromise will add $148 billion to the shortfall, pushing it to $1.34 trillion for fiscal 2011, Credit Suisse strategists Scott Sherman, Ira Jersey and Jay Feldman… wrote… The forecast is near the $1.42 trillion and $1.29 trillion deficits in the 2009 and 2010 fiscal years.”

December 9 – Bloomberg (Simon Kennedy): “The global economy faces an imminent end to three decades of low interest rates as emerging markets embark upon a building boom and aging populations drain savings, according to McKinsey & Co. A shift toward investment and away from savings is set to drive up the cost of capital with long-term interest rates possibly starting to rise within the next five years, the research division of McKinsey… said in a study… ‘Everyone who is in business has lived in a 30-year period when rates of interest have declined and that world is coming to an end,’ said Richard Dobbs, a Seoul-based director of McKinsey Global Institute and co-author of the report.”

Currency Watch:

December 8 – Bloomberg (Masaki Kondo and Shigeki Nozawa): “China bought a net 262.5 billion yen ($3.1 billion) of Japanese bonds in October, the first time in three months the nation increased holdings of yen-denominated assets as that currency outperformed the dollar and euro.”

Commodities Watch:

December 9 – Bloomberg: “Crude stockpiling for commercial and emergency use may account for 300,000 barrels a day of China’s incremental oil demand in the next two years, the nation’s largest investment bank said. Stockpiling for emergency use will contribute a 140,000 barrel-a-day increase to China’s demand growth, while commercial inventory building will account for a gain of about 160,000 barrels a day, Kong Qingying, an analyst at China International Capital Corp., wrote … The country finished filling the first phase of its emergency crude stockpiles of 16.4 million cubic meters last year, or 103 million barrels… The second phase of 26.8 million cubic meters is expected to be completed in 2012 to 2013, Kong said.”

China Bubble Watch:

December 10 – Bloomberg: “China’s leaders will in coming days lay a course for policy in 2011 that will help determine whether the world’s fastest-growing major economy will succeed in reining in inflation without hobbling the nation’s expansion. President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao convene the so- called Central Economic Work Conference, a three-day conclave in Beijing, starting today…”

December 10 – Bloomberg: “China ordered lenders to park more money with the central bank for the third time in five weeks to counter the threat from inflation after November’s lending and trade surplus topped analysts’ estimates. Reserve requirements will increase 50 basis points starting Dec. 20…”

December 10 – Bloomberg: “China’s trade surplus and lending exceeded forecasts in November, underscoring the case for higher interest rates and a stronger exchange rate to stem the nation’s escalating inflation. Exports rose 35% to a record $153.3 billion from November 2009 and imports advanced 38% to an unprecedented $130.4 billion, leaving a $22.9 billion excess… Loans were 564 billion yuan ($85 billion).”

December 7 – Bloomberg: “China’s inflation cycle is at a ‘critical point,’ requiring ‘disciplined and comprehensive policies,’ China Daily cited Stephen Roach, non-executive Asia chairman at Morgan Stanley, as saying… The Asian nation needs to convince the market that its shift to a ‘prudent’ monetary policy ‘has teeth’ by adopting tougher anti-inflationary measures, Roach said…”

December 10 – Bloomberg: “China’s property prices rose at the slowest pace in a year in November after the government raised the reserve-ratio requirement for banks twice and expanded measures to limit the risk of asset bubbles. Home prices in 70 cities climbed 7.7% from a year earlier and increased 0.3% from October…”

Japan Watch:

December 9 – Bloomberg (Keiko Ujikane): “Japan’s economy expanded more than the government initially calculated in the third quarter because of a bigger-than-reported increase in capital spending. Gross domestic product grew at an annualized 4.5% rate…”

December 8 – Bloomberg (Shigeki Nozawa): “The world is entering a recession that may last up to eight years as the U.S. heads toward a ‘lost decade’ similar to Japan’s slowdown in the 1990s, said Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan’s top currency official. ‘The world is set for a long-term structural slump reminiscent of the 1870s’ when average annual growth was about 1%, Sakakibara, who is a professor at Aoyama Gakuin University, said…”

India Watch:

December 10 – Bloomberg (Kartik Goyal): “India’s industrial production grew at the fastest pace in three months, threatening to strain power and transportation capacities and stoke inflation. Stocks rose. Output at factories, utilities and mines rose 10.8% in October from a year earlier…”

December 8 – Bloomberg (Thomas Kutty Abraham): “Tea prices in India, the top grower after China, may climb 20% in the next five months as lower output and rising demand worsens a shortage, according to McLeod Russel India Ltd., the largest tea-plantation owner.”

Asia Bubble Watch:

December 10 – Bloomberg (Eunkyung Seo): “South Korea’s economic growth is set to slow and inflation is poised to accelerate next year, the Bank of Korea said a day after leaving borrowing costs unchanged. Gross domestic product is likely to expand 4.5% in 2011…”

December 7 – Bloomberg (Shamim Adam): “Singapore’s central bank spent an estimated $17 billion buying foreign currencies in October as capital inflows rose at the fastest pace since March 2008, according to DBS Group Holdings Ltd.”

Latin America Watch:

December 8 – Bloomberg (Iuri Dantas and Matthew Bristow): “Brazil’s consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in over five years in November, cementing expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates at the start of next year. Inflation last month accelerated to 0.83% from 0.75% in October…”

December 8 – Bloomberg (Daniel Cancel): “Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened to nationalize any bank should they fail to provide housing loans, including a unit of Spain’s Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA and Banesco Banco Universal, the country’s largest lender. BBVA Provincial and Banesco are among banks that could be taken over if they fail to comply with government-set lending requirements for homebuyers, Chavez said… ‘Any bank that slips will be expropriated, whether it´s called Banesco, Provincial or whichever,’ Chavez said yesterday on state television.”

Unbalanced Global Economy Watch:

December 8 – Bloomberg (Christian Vits): “Industrial production in Germany… rose almost three times as much as economists forecast in October, led by demand for investment goods such as machinery. Production jumped 2.9% from September… From a year earlier, output increased 11.7%...”

December 7 – Financial Times (John Reed): “Many of Germany’s biggest carmakers are planning shorter Christmas shutdowns this year to meet surging demand, led by China, for their products. Carmakers say they will be shutting down only briefly or working through the holidays to address bulging order books and long waiting periods for their most popular cars.”

December 9 – Bloomberg (Toby Alder): “Sweden’s inflation rate rose in November as consumer demand picked up in the largest Nordic economy and supporting the central bank’s signal it will continue raising interest rates. Headline inflation accelerated to 1.8% from 1.5% in October…”

December 10 – Bloomberg (Michael Heath): “Employment in Australia is headed for the biggest annual increase on record, boosting prospects of an acceleration in wage gains that forces the central bank to resume raising interest rates. Payrolls soared by 366,000 in the first 11 months of this year to 11.4 million, the most since records began in 1978…”

Real Estate Bubble Watch:

December 9 – Bloomberg (Hui-yong Yu and John Gittelsohn): “U.S. home values are poised to drop by more than $1.7 trillion this year amid rising foreclosures and the expiration of homebuyer tax credits, said Zillow… This year’s estimated decline, more than the $1.05 trillion drop in 2009, brings the loss since the June 2006 home-price peak to $9 trillion…”

Central Bank Watch:

December 9 – Bloomberg (Joshua Zumbrun): “A majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the nation’s independent central bank, saying the U.S. Federal Reserve should either be brought under tighter political control or abolished outright, a poll shows. The Bloomberg National Poll underlines the extent to which the central bank’s standing has suffered…”

Fiscal Watch:

December 10 - Bloomberg (Vincent Del Giudice): “The U.S. government posted a wider budget deficit in November… The deficit was $150.4 billion last month… compared with $120.3 billion in November 2009… For the first two months of the 2011 fiscal year, the shortfall narrowed to $290.8 billion from $296.7 billion in the same period last year…”

California Watch:

December 8 – Bloomberg (Michael Marois): “California’s budget gap may widen to $28.1 billion over 18 months, according to Governor-elect Jerry Brown… A cash shortage may force the use of IOUs by July, Controller John Chiang said. The deficit estimate takes into account a $2.7 billion drop in projected estate-tax receipts, and compares with the most recent forecast of a $25 billion gap for the period, Brown said… The cash accounts may be short by $2.3 billion within eight months, Chiang said at the meeting in Sacramento. ‘I don’t want to say it, but this could mean IOUs and more tax-refund deferrals,’ Chiang said.”

New York Watch:

December 7 – Bloomberg (Michael Quint): “New York state’s $132.8 billion pension plan is underfunded by $71 billion and annual taxpayer payments to keep it sound may more than double to almost $4 billion during the next five years, a report says.”

December 6 – Bloomberg (Henry Goldman): “New York City’s projected budget deficit for fiscal 2012 may widen by $2 billion, to $4.5 billion, because of cuts in state aid, Budget Director Mark Page said.”

Muni Watch:

December 8 – Bloomberg (William Selway): “U.S. states are preparing for more budget cuts next year as tax revenue isn’t likely to rebound enough to replace almost $38 billion in aid that will be gone as federal economic stimulus ends, according to a report. At least 31 states and Puerto Rico are forecasting deficits of $82.1 billion in the next fiscal year even as tax receipts are picking up, the National Conference of State Legislatures said… Under a temporary mandate since 2009, the U.S. has provided economic aid to states, helping to pay government workers and shoulder the cost of the Medicaid program to provide health care for the poor… The fiscal 2012 deficits come on top of at least $110.6 billion in gaps that have been dealt with or are pending for the current year….”

December 10 – Wall Street Journal (Mike Spector and Michael Corkery ): “Times have gotten so tough for the Illinois state government that it has begun turning to Wall Street trading houses and hedge funds to help pay its bills. The state owes more than $4.5 billion to vendors large and small, ranging from prison-cleaning crews to schools for the disabled. Tax shortfalls and pension obligations continue to leave the state light on cash. Quietly, aides to Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn have begun reaching out to Wall Street with a novel plan to plug this shortfall. Instead of further tapping the public debt markets, Illinois is trying to borrow from private sources for short-term interest loans that could carry higher interest rates than the state pays its bond investors.”

December 6 – Bloomberg (Darrell Preston): “Illinois, which has the worst-funded pension system among U.S. states, may face further deterioration because contributions will be below the amount needed, even if it sells bonds next year to close the gap, Moody’s Investors Service said…”

December 9 – Associated Press: “There’s now a better estimate of how wide the gap between expected revenues and expenses could be in North Carolina state government in 2011. Fiscal experts at the Legislature announced… the preliminary gap for the year starting July 1 is $3.7 billion. That's $500 million more than the minimum budget gap discussed after the current year's $19 billion budget was approved last summer.”

December 8 – Dow Jones Newswire: “State economists… projected Florida's budget deficit would grow to $3 billion next year in the wake of declining sales tax collections and an increase in Medicaid costs, the Miami Herald reported…”

December 6 – Bloomberg (Alison Vekshin): “Washington Governor Christine Gregoire intends to call a special legislative session before Christmas to deal with a $1.1 billion projected budget deficit for the current fiscal period…”

December 6 – Bond Buyer (Caitlin Devitt): “Minnesota faces a $6.2 billion budget deficit over the next two years that is about $590 million more than previously projected, according to a new revenue forecast…”

6 komentarzy:

  1. @SiP
    Jeśli chcesz nas czymś zainteresować to zamieść te teksty po polsku. Nie wątpię, że sam znasz biegle angielski i część czytelników tego bloga również, ale ja np. znam nieco słabiej zwłaszcza w tematach ekonomicznych.

    PS. To nie jest zarzut tylko sugestia.

  2. to się naucz ;P dla chcącego nic trudnego

  3. @Mariusz,
    Pomimo szczerych chęci - nie dam rady. Absolutnie nie mieszczę się w czasie z raportami. Np posiadam na stanie jakieś 16 raportów zprognozami na rok 2011 od UBS, Citi, Goldman, Nomura itd w formie pdf a nawet nie miałem czasu ich wrzucić na bloga.

    Proponuje abyś używał strony google.com/translate
    wchodzisz, wybierasz język angielski, dalej na polski i wklejasz link do tego wpisu:

    jako tako zrozumiesz a warto, chociażby to:
    "December 9 – Bloomberg (Simon Kennedy): “The global economy faces an imminent end to three decades of low interest rates as emerging markets embark upon a building boom and aging populations drain savings, according to McKinsey & Co. A shift toward investment and away from savings is set to drive up the cost of capital with long-term interest rates possibly starting to rise within the next five years, the research division of McKinsey… said in a study… ‘Everyone who is in business has lived in a 30-year period when rates of interest have declined and that world is coming to an end,’ said Richard Dobbs, a Seoul-based director of McKinsey Global Institute and co-author of the report.”"

  4. @Anonimowy pisze...

    " to się naucz ;P dla chcącego nic trudnego"

    ODP: Podpisuj się proszę przy wyborze opcji "anonimowy" na koncu wpisu, przed np słowem Pozdrawiam, czy wybierajac opcje "nazwa\url i wpisujac login \ nick (nie wymaga logowania) w polu nazwa.

    A do nauki łaciny 21 też zachęcam. Niestety its a must

  5. @SiP
    Daj spokój. Przecież wiem, że można użyć automatycznego translatora google. Jeśli chodzi o internet to naprawdę nie jest w nim nowicjuszem. Mam dostęp do netu od ładnych paru lat.
    Tłumaczenie tekstów ekonomicznych z automatu daje wynik dosyć tragiczny. Często potrzebne jest tłumaczenie z google na polski.
    O ile w miarę rozumiem teksty pisane po angielsku to w przypadku terminologii ekonomicznej odpadam.

  6. ok będę się podpisywał

    "O ile w miarę rozumiem teksty pisane po angielsku to w przypadku terminologii ekonomicznej "

    w takim razie będzie Ci nawet łatwiej niż myślałem ;) parę razy skorzystasz ze słownika a potem będziesz już znał. potem jest już tylko satysfakcja ;)

    pozdrawiam :)


Komentując anonimowo - podpisz się. Łatwiej prowadzi się dyskusję.