17 lutego 2011

Goldman Sachs - Asia (2011-FEB-16) & Citi GEM Strategy (2011-FEB-10) reports

Goldman Sachs Asia Overview
Three main views, two themes: Our main 2011 Outlook views were (1) DM over EM (2) North Asia vs. South Asia, and (3) Returns to be back-endloaded in 2H 2011. What’s changed? DM has outperformed EM; Korea, Taiwan, and Australia topped the region; sector tilts reflect global growth appetite, less optimism on domestic demand stories. DM growth expectations have risen, EM inflation pressures have increased. Updated views: More neutral stance on DM vs. EM; still prefer North over South Asia; looking for a good entry point into China; trimming numbers in India and ASEAN. Implementation: We continue to favor Taiwan, Korea, and Japan, emphasize global cyclicals (tech, energy, cap goods), and highlight knockin risk reversals on China and inexpensive calls on Taiwan.
GS-Asia-2011-FEB-16 Citi - Global Emerging Markets (GEM) Strategy Inflation Threat to EM Equities
! Inflation Scare — Average inflation in developing economies has jumped to 6.6% from 4.6% in late-2009, contributing to recent underperformance of EM equities. In our view, these fears of inflation and rises in interest rates are becoming overdone and represent a long-term buying opportunity in EM equity markets. ! Role of Commodity Prices — The UN world food price index is now above its 2008 peak, although annual food inflation (28% currently) remains well below the 2008 peak (49%). Oil and other commodity prices have played a lesser role in the recent rise of inflation than in the 2002-7 commodity ‘super-cycle’. ! A Cyclical Comparison — The emerging market CPI has risen by less so far in this equity market cycle than at equivalent stages of recent cycles; EM inflation is only marginally above its level at this stage of the 2002-7 bull market in equities. ! The Case for an Inflation Peak — Several factors suggest that the inflation threat in EM should ease through 2011: i) it is early in the economic cycle for a sustained rise in inflation; ii) capex in EMs is forecast to rise by 10% in 2011, which should ease capacity pressures; iii) core inflation generally remains lower than headline inflation; iv) EM currencies remain strong; v) the hope for better harvests in 2011. ! Easy Money — While interest rates are rising in virtually all emerging markets, the overall stance of monetary policy in most countries should remain accommodating; 8 of 19 GEM countries have negative real rates at present. Much of the expected monetary tightening in EM this year is now priced into local money market rates. ! TriggersWe remain bullish, forecasting 30% upside for MSCI GEMs in 2011. However, it may take time for the current inflation/interest rate scare to pass (end-Q1?). For triggers, look for clear visibility of the peak in the rate cycle in countries such as Brazil and China and a leveling off of GDP upgrades in the US.

1 komentarz:

  1. veritas
    Ciekawe analizy, dziękuję.
    U mnie było wyjście z Azji - mogło być wcześniejsze, jak się niestety okazało - ale nadal się przyglądam tym rynkom i mam nadzieję wejść w relatywnie niedługiej przyszłości.


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