13 lutego 2011

Tydzień 6/2011 - wybrane fragmenty wiadomości - Noland

Global Bubble Watch: February 7 – Bloomberg (Scott Lanman and Simon Kennedy): “Investors are betting with Ben S. Bernanke that surging food and energy prices won’t accelerate U.S. inflation, allowing him to maintain easy money… While pressure from commodity costs may cause a spike this year to what Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Anthony Crescenzi considers a warning threshold of 2.75 points, the spread won’t persist there or higher without strong job growth, Crescenzi said. That means the Federal Reserve chairman probably won’t raise benchmark interest rates from near zero in 2011 because of higher consumer prices, Crescenzi predicted… ‘Headline inflation is beginning to have a greater influence on monetary policy, but not yet at the Fed,’ said Crescenzi, who helps manage $1.2 trillion at Pimco… The central bank ‘remains anchored or hinged to the core rate,’ which excludes food and energy costs.” Muni Watch: February 11 – Bloomberg (Matt Robinson): “Investors withdrew about $1.2 billion from U.S. municipal-bond mutual funds this week, the 13th-straight period of withdrawals, Lipper US Fund Flows said. Outflows have totaled $24.8 billion since mid-November…” February 7 – Bloomberg (Simone Baribeau): “Florida Governor Rick Scott proposed a 2012 budget that would lower spending by $4.6 billion, or about 7%, the most since at least 2002, as it eliminates almost 8,700 jobs. The budget would require public employees to contribute 5% of their wages to pensions, pare Medicaid spending by almost $4 billion over two years and renegotiate contracts and leases to save more than $660 million over two years. The first-term Republican elected in November faced a projected deficit of $3.6 billion and campaigned on a promise to fill the gap with spending reductions while still cutting taxes.” Commodities and Food Watch: February 8 – Bloomberg: “Shandong province, one of China's major grain producers, is facing its worst drought in 200 years if the eastern region doesn’t receive more precipitation by the end of this month, the official Xinhua News Agency reported… Shandong, which has received only 12 millimeters of rain since last September, is one of eight drought-ravaged provinces where the government has started a ‘grade II emergency response’ including 24-hour weather monitoring and daily damage reports… The four-month drought affected 35% of wheat in the eight regions…” February 8 – Bloomberg (Poole): “A severe drought in the North China Plain, the country’s main winter wheat-producing area, may threaten production, according to the United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization. Rainfall has been substantially below normal since October, with diminished snow cover reducing the protection of dormant plants against frost… The drought is ‘potentially a serious problem,’ it said.” February 7 – Bloomberg (Wendy Pugh): “World sugar output will probably fall short of demand, said Rabobank, after a cyclone with winds stronger than Hurricane Katrina destroyed homes and smashed crops in Australia, driving prices to 30-year highs. Tropical Cyclone Yasi ripped through northern Queensland, a region growing a third of the country’s cane, cutting output potential in the area by about 50%...” China Bubble Watch: February 8 – Bloomberg: “China raised key interest rates for the third time since mid-October after growth accelerated and inflation stayed above 4% for a third month. The benchmark one-year lending rate will increase to 6.06% from 5.81%... The one-year deposit rate will rise to 3% from 2.75%. A jump in lending at the start of this year may have exacerbated price pressures by adding to an excess of cash in the fastest-growing major economy. Inflation may have climbed to as much as 6% in January… according to Daiwa Capital Markets.” February 11 - Dow Jones: “China is likely to use interest rate tools cautiously and won't hike benchmark interest rates often, if at all, this year, Ba Shusong, an economist at a government think tank, said in a column published in the central bank-backed Financial News on Friday. China may make several policy adjustments in the first quarter, including to banks' reserve requirements, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, said Ba, a deputy director-general of the Financial Research Institute under the State Council's Development Research Center.” February 10 – Bloomberg (Henry Goldman): “China, the world’s biggest grains consumer, will spend 12.9 billion yuan ($1.96bn) to bolster grain production and fight drought, China Central Television reported… citing Premier Wen Jiabao. The country should use reserves, imports and exports to balance the grain market and is able to keep overall consumer prices basically stable, CCTV cited Wen as saying.” Japan Watch: February 8 – Bloomberg (Toru Fujioka): “Japan’s current account surplus widened in December as the global recovery boosted demand, underpinning the wealth that supports the nation’s debt burden. The gap expanded 30.5% from a year earlier to 1.195 trillion yen ($14.5bn)…” India Watch: February 7 – Bloomberg (Kartik Goyal): “India’s government predicted the economy will expand the most in three years, supporting the central bank’s case for raising interest rates further after the steepest increases in Asia. The $1.3 trillion economy will probably expand 8.6% in the year ending March 31 from a year earlier… India, battling inflation stoked by rising consumer demand and food costs, is bracing for the impact of a possible spurt in oil prices following political unrest in Egypt, central bank Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn signaled… Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Feb. 4 said India needs to tackle inflation with ‘great urgency’ to sustain the economy’s momentum. ‘Inflation risks are growing rapidly,’ Shubhada Rao, chief economist in Mumbai at Yes Bank… said…” Asia Bubble Watch: February 7 – Bloomberg (Shamim Adam and Widya Utami): “Indonesia’s economy grew at the fastest annual pace in six years last quarter, adding to the case for the central bank to raise interest rates further as inflation accelerates. Stocks rose. Gross domestic product increased 6.9% in the three months through December from a year earlier… Rising consumer spending is driving the expansion in the world’s fourth-most populous nation, increasing pressure on the central bank to restrain price gains and protect purchasing power.” February 7 – Bloomberg (Eko Listiyorini and Supunnabul Suwannakij): “Indonesia, the third-biggest rice importer in Asia, is seeking to ‘strengthen’ its stockpiles to protect the poor against rising costs, according to Bayu Krisnamurthi, Deputy Minister of Agriculture. ‘The price is expensive so the government needs to strengthen inventories,’ Krisnamurthi said… ‘Supply is enough but the problem is the price, especially international prices.’” Latin America Watch: February 8 – Bloomberg (Alexander Ragir and Andre Soliani): “Brazil’s consumer prices rose in January at the fastest pace since 2005, fueled by food prices and an increase in bus fares at the start of the year. Prices… rose 0.83% last month, pushing the annual rate to 5.99%... A jump in food prices coupled with domestic demand are stoking inflation…” Unbalanced Global Economy Watch: February 11 – Bloomberg (Jeff Black): “Inflation in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, accelerated to the fastest in more than two years in January, led by higher costs for food and energy. The inflation rate, calculated using a harmonized European method, increased to 2% after rising an annual 1.9% in December…” Fiscal Watch: February 7 – Bloomberg (Caroline Salas and Scott Lanman): “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is trying to make sure the U.S. central bank doesn’t become a scapegoat for fiscal profligacy. Fed officials are warning that Congress needs to balance the nation’s budget, showing that policy makers are concerned about a loss of confidence in U.S. finances and want lawmakers to help prevent it, according to Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. Bernanke extended his campaign yesterday, telling the House Budget Committee ‘anything that can be done now to change that path’ would have a ‘good impact on the current economy’ and interest rates. ‘There is this tremendous fiscal problem looming, and Congress has to do something about it,’ said Mark Gertler, a professor of economics at New York University who has co- authored research with Bernanke. ‘If they have a fixed amount of time, spend it solving’ that problem, rather than ‘grandstanding about the Fed.’ The central bank’s plan to buy $600 billion in Treasury securities through June is ‘a relatively modest policy undertaking’ compared with balancing the $3.7 trillion budget, he said.” Central Banking Watch: February 7 – Bloomberg (Cordell Eddings and Daniel Kruger): “The Federal Reserve’s Treasury purchases already have succeeded in driving investors to junk bonds and stocks. Now, policy makers are focusing on benchmark government securities, helping contain rising yields that set rates on everything from corporate debt to mortgages. More than 40% of the government bonds the Fed bought in January for its so-called quantitative easing were auctioned in the previous 90 days, up from 20% in December and 15% in November, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The central bank is concentrating on newer securities as its $600 billion program depletes primary dealers’ holdings of Treasuries to the lowest since November 2009.” February 11 – Bloomberg (Christian Vits and Simon Kennedy): “Bundesbank President Axel Weber resigned, ending three days of confusion and opening the field for candidates from Finland to Italy to become the next chief of the European Central Bank. Weber, 53, ‘expressed the wish to resign’ and will leave office on April 30 with a successor to be named during the next week…” February 7 – Bloomberg (Simon Kennedy and James G. Neuger): “The campaign for the top job at the European Central Bank was thrown open as the sudden and unexplained withdrawal of German front-runner Axel Weber cleared the way for a slew of candidates to replace Jean-Claude Trichet. Central bankers Mario Draghi of Italy, Luxembourg’s Yves Mersch and Erkki Liikanen of Finland saw their chances of winning Europe’s top economic post rise as did Germany’s Klaus Regling, who runs the region’s bailout fund. Trichet’s non- renewable eight-year term expires in October. ‘The top candidate is now out of the game,’ said Marco Valli, chief euro-area economist at UniCredit Global Research…” February 10 – Bloomberg (Jennifer Ryan): “The Bank of England kept up emergency stimulus as officials tolerated the prospect of inflation accelerating to a two-year high to nurture Britain’s economic recovery. The Monetary Policy Committee… kept the benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5%... The bank may hold fire until later this year, when it will have official data showing the extent of the economy’s rebound from a fourth-quarter contraction.” February 11 – Bloomberg (Joshua Zumbrun and Scott Lanman): “The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, created by Congress to investigate and report on the causes of the market meltdown late last decade, won’t publicly release its full 2009 interview with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, a commission spokesman said.” GSE Watch: February 11 – Bloomberg (Lorraine Woellert and Rebecca Christie): “U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner presented Congress with a set of options for weaning the $11 trillion mortgage market from its dependence on the government, while calling for changes to be phased in ‘responsibly and carefully’ to avoid economic disruptions. The report… presents three approaches for a future housing finance system. It also calls for the government to shrink ‘and ultimately wind down’… ‘This is a plan for fundamental reform -- to wind down the GSEs, strengthen consumer protection and preserve access to affordable housing for people who need it,’ Geithner said… The report also pledges ongoing U.S. government support to make sure Fannie and Freddie can meet any debt or other financial obligations.” Report: Reforming America's Housing Finance Market Noland: no exits

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