31 marca 2011

Wykres dnia - bańka na rynku gruntów rolnych w US

Pisałem szerzej o bańce na rynku gruntów rolnych w US w grudniu 2010 (klik). Zauważył to obecnie znany ekonomista Robert Shiller. Wycena gruntów uwzględniająca inflację ukazana była nawet jako wykres dnia:
Polecam cały artykuł: Shiller Singles Out Farmland as Bubble Candidate: Chart of the Day

4 komentarze:

  1. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-16/farmland-boom-provides-bright-spot-for-u-s-midwest-real-estate.html

    ...i jak ta bańka może się zakończyc - przykład z nie tak w końcu dalekiej historii. Za to kraj ten sam ;)

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  2. Sowing bubbles
    Regulators grow increasingly worried about steep cropland prices


    FINANCIAL regulators in America were criticised for doing too little about the country’s housing bubble. Now they face an early test of whether lessons have been learned: a farmland boom. The stakes are lower. America’s farms were collectively valued at just under $2 trillion last year, compared with $16 trillion for housing. But a bust would still be painful: more than 1,500 of the country’s banks and thrifts specialise in agriculture lending. Nobody wants to see a repeat of the devastating crash of the early 1980s, which drove hundreds of farms and lenders out of business.

    Conditions are undeniably frothy. Though down a bit from the highs of 2008, inflation-adjusted farmland values remain well above the last great peak of three decades ago (see chart), buoyed by strong commodity prices, low interest rates and a weak dollar. In parts of the Midwest they rose by more than 20% last year. Feeling flush, farmers have rushed to buy and cultivate more land. Inventories look likely to remain depleted, putting upward pressure on crop and land prices. Investors now account for a quarter of all land purchases in some states.

    Is it a bubble? Bulls (of the figurative kind) contend that the economics of farming are enjoying a secular improvement as the climate changes, as people in emerging markets adopt more protein-based diets, and so on. This type of “new paradigm” argument worries some. Robert Shiller of Yale University recently singled out farmland as “my favourite dark-horse bubble candidate for the next decade or so”.
    Farmers themselves are edgy. Chris Petersen, president of Iowa’s farmers’ union, says that years of strong earnings have given them reasonably strong balance-sheets, with only half the amount of leverage they carried into the last downturn. But he worries that farming has been turned into “legalised gambling”. Plenty of farmers are still splashing out on “pieces of dirt”, some with funds borrowed against property they already own. “There’s a real risk that a couple of things going wrong could cause a crash overnight,” he frets.

    więcej:

    http://www.economist.com/node/18586884

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  3. Polecam w sprawie cen ziemi w US:
    http://www.fdic.gov/news/conferences/2011-03-10.html

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  4. U.S crop land investors at risk of overpaying:
    Maguire
    CHICAGO: The value of top-tier cropland across the U.S. Corn Belt hit all-time highs this year as crop prices scaled multiyear or record high levels and investors poured funds into an array of assets tied to commodity markets.

    But while rising global populations and a growing need for sharp increases in food output make investments in the factors of food production highly tempting, the fact that land price appreciation has clearly outstripped productivity growth in the United States in recent years suggests investors may be at risk of overpaying for land in the U.S. relative to other countries.
    http://www.brecorder.com/component/content/article/18-markets-commodities/25019-us-crop-land-investors-at-risk-of-overpaying.html

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