18 kwietnia 2011

QE2 - opinia w mediach o zakończeniu programu i jego wpływie na rentowność obligacji amerykańskich

Ku pamięci, opinia oficjalna w mediach wielkich banków i agencji na temat końca QE2. Treasury's Oldest Bonds Show Covert Demand With End in Sight for Fed's QE2
Investors are paying the smallest discounts for Treasuries other than the newest, most-traded bonds since the start of the financial crisis, a sign of growing demand even as the Federal Reserve’s $600 billion buying program approaches its conclusion. Yields on older notes with 10 years left to maturity have fallen to within 11.4 basis points, or 0.114 percentage point, of those on the newest securities of the same maturity, down from the peak of 66.1 in January 2009, according to data from Barclays Plc. The gap for so-called off-the-run notes narrowed to as little as 6.6 basis points in February, the least since May 2007. [...] “There will not be major disruptions in the functioning of the Treasury market,” said Eric Pellicciaro, the New York-based head of global rates investments at BlackRock Inc., which manages about $3.56 trillion in assets. Participation in the Treasury market will “remain high, if not higher,” he said. [...] No Concern Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said last week they don’t expect an increase in yields after the Fed exits the market, while Credit Suisse AG fixed-income strategists said Treasury rates may fall as traders reverse bets on a decline. “We are not concerned about the end of QE2,” the Credit Suisse strategists led by Carl Lantz in New York wrote in the report. “Our base case is that rates will tend to rally around the end of the program.” [...] Primary dealers have traded an average of $606 billion in securities each week this year, compared with $584 billion in the first eight months of 2008, central bank data shows. The amount dipped to about $410 billion per week in 2009 and $524 billion last year even as debt outstanding surged 54 percent $8.86 trillion. Treasuries are also getting a boost from optimism that President Barack Obama and Congress are beginning to address record debt levels, according to Brian Edmonds, head of interest rates at primary dealer Cantor Fitzgerald LP in New York. [...] Demand at Treasury auctions has risen to record levels this year, with investors submitting $3 in orders for every $1 of debt offered, data compiled by Bloomberg show. At each of last week’s auctions of three-, 10- and 30-year bonds, the so-called bid-to-cover ratio exceeded the average of the previous 10 sales. The bond market has likely already priced in the end of QE2, according to Goldman Sachs, a primary dealer. Traders typically adjust prices when the Fed announces its buying plans rather than when it acquires the debt, Sven Jari Stehn, an economist at the firm in New York, wrote in the report last week. “Many market participants are worried that the end of the Treasury purchases will have strongly adverse effects on bond yields and other asset prices,” Stehn wrote. “This is unlikely.”
Moody, jak dla mnie kłamie jak z nut, zapomina o problemach sekurytyzacji itd, ale "just for the record"
Przy okazji wykres dnia: udział obligacji amerykańskich posiadanych przez FED w całości długu federalnego:
Jak widać bywało gorzej, to tak "just for the record", więcej tutaj. I na koniec co robią z tym PD (Primary Dealers) - raportowane przez FED z tygodniowym opóźnieniem (Weekly Release of Primary Dealer Positions, Transactions, and Financing) Co robią FCB (zachodnie banki centralne): Co robią spekulanci:

12 komentarzy:

  1. Jaki czerwiec???

    Z puli 600 mld wydano do wczoraj 541 przy dziennym tempie dodruku ok 6 mld zatem w dość optymistycznym wariancie qe2 zakończy się wraz z końcem kwietnia lub pierwszych dniach maja.

    Dlaczego tak kłamią?

  2. Ile razy można to prostować? Już 3 czy 4 razy to opisałem szczegół po szczególe, wiecej nie zamierzam:

  3. @SiP

    mógłbyś opisać co dokładnie obrazuje wykres z Primary Dealers?

  4. fed wystawia tanie put opcje na rzadowy dlug czym podtrzymuje rynek


  5. czy orientuje sie ktos o ktorej godzinie dzis zapadnie decyzja odnosnie obligacji Grecji bo trzeba bedzie siedziec z palcem na enterze

  6. Bundesbank criticizes Euro governance reforms and ESM
    Amid all the big financial news of the days, this story almost drowned – yet it would have made a top slot on a normal day. The Bundesbank wrote in its latest monthly report that the ESM was a flawed construction and needed to be renegotiated in several important points. The interest rate charge by the ESM would be lower than those of the IMF, and this low rate would be an incentive for government to fall under the umbrella. Furthermore, the rules of participation of private investors have to be clarified. And it has to be stated explicitly that the primary bond purchase option should not be used in conjunction with bond buybacks. The Bundesbank also insists that it has to be made crystal clear that the benefactors of the ESM’s rescue operations do not have a right to vote in the mecanism’s decision making body.

    The Bundesbank was also critical of all the other aspects of the March 24/25 agreement. Given the lack of automaticity in the sanctions regime of the revised stability and growth pact and the bad experiences of the past the German central bank sees “no reason for much optimism” that the new pact will produce much sounder public finances than the previous version. The Bundesbank also condemns that the Euro Plus Pact (originally called competetivness pact) is purely intergovernmental and does not foresee binding goals or sanctions. See Borsenzeitung for a coverage on this story.

  7. http://www.obserwatorfinansowy.pl/2011/04/19/rynek-nieruchomosci-w-usa-bez-poprawy-zobacz-interaktywna-mape/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

  8. @Anonimowy pisze...
    " mógłbyś opisać co dokładnie obrazuje wykres z Primary Dealers?"





    UST 10Y:

    Google Twoim przyjacielem jest. Nie jestem Matka Teresa z Kalkulatorem.

  9. PETER SCHIFF i AMERICA Going down...



  10. @SiP

    "Google Twoim przyjacielem jest. Nie jestem Matka Teresa z Kalkulatorem"

    widzę że już nawet o cokolwiek nie można się zapytać - nie wszyscy znają tak dobrze ang szczególnie w tym aspekcie finansowym. Bo te linki co wkleiłeś nic nie daja. Dzieki za pomoc :>

  11. @anonimowy

    "Bo te linki co wkleiłeś nic nie daja. Dzieki za pomoc :> "

    Nie podpisujesz sie, piszesz jako anonimowy i chciałbys abym poswiecal swoj wlasny czas i tlumaczyl podstawy angielskiego jak i podstawy wykresó (os rzędnych i odciętych). Kaman, nie znamy sie, sorry. Ale masz google translate, dict.pl i sie ucz. wiedza jest na wyciagniecie reki, samemu musisz tylko po to siegnac. Obecne czasy daja ogromne mozliwosci nauki, nie trzeba isc do zadnej ksiegarni, masz internet i ksiazki w necie.

    Jak nie rozumiesz podstaw co to jest short, long to ja nie pomoge. Czytaj w necie, co do obtazka powiem ze skracaja obligacje PD.

  12. CS o QE2:


Komentując anonimowo - podpisz się. Łatwiej prowadzi się dyskusję.