Ku pamięci, opinia oficjalna w mediach wielkich banków i agencji na temat końca QE2. Treasury's Oldest Bonds Show Covert Demand With End in Sight for Fed's QE2
Investors are paying the smallest discounts for Treasuries other than the newest, most-traded bonds since the start of the financial crisis, a sign of growing demand even as the Federal Reserve’s $600 billion buying program approaches its conclusion. Yields on older notes with 10 years left to maturity have fallen to within 11.4 basis points, or 0.114 percentage point, of those on the newest securities of the same maturity, down from the peak of 66.1 in January 2009, according to data from Barclays Plc. The gap for so-called off-the-run notes narrowed to as little as 6.6 basis points in February, the least since May 2007. [...] “There will not be major disruptions in the functioning of the Treasury market,” said Eric Pellicciaro, the New York-based head of global rates investments at BlackRock Inc., which manages about $3.56 trillion in assets. Participation in the Treasury market will “remain high, if not higher,” he said. [...] No Concern Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said last week they don’t expect an increase in yields after the Fed exits the market, while Credit Suisse AG fixed-income strategists said Treasury rates may fall as traders reverse bets on a decline. “We are not concerned about the end of QE2,” the Credit Suisse strategists led by Carl Lantz in New York wrote in the report. “Our base case is that rates will tend to rally around the end of the program.” [...] Primary dealers have traded an average of $606 billion in securities each week this year, compared with $584 billion in the first eight months of 2008, central bank data shows. The amount dipped to about $410 billion per week in 2009 and $524 billion last year even as debt outstanding surged 54 percent $8.86 trillion. Treasuries are also getting a boost from optimism that President Barack Obama and Congress are beginning to address record debt levels, according to Brian Edmonds, head of interest rates at primary dealer Cantor Fitzgerald LP in New York. [...] Demand at Treasury auctions has risen to record levels this year, with investors submitting $3 in orders for every $1 of debt offered, data compiled by Bloomberg show. At each of last week’s auctions of three-, 10- and 30-year bonds, the so-called bid-to-cover ratio exceeded the average of the previous 10 sales. The bond market has likely already priced in the end of QE2, according to Goldman Sachs, a primary dealer. Traders typically adjust prices when the Fed announces its buying plans rather than when it acquires the debt, Sven Jari Stehn, an economist at the firm in New York, wrote in the report last week. “Many market participants are worried that the end of the Treasury purchases will have strongly adverse effects on bond yields and other asset prices,” Stehn wrote. “This is unlikely.”Moody, jak dla mnie kłamie jak z nut, zapomina o problemach sekurytyzacji itd, ale "just for the record"
Przy okazji wykres dnia: udział obligacji amerykańskich posiadanych przez FED w całości długu federalnego:
Jak widać bywało gorzej, to tak "just for the record", więcej tutaj. I na koniec co robią z tym PD (Primary Dealers) - raportowane przez FED z tygodniowym opóźnieniem (Weekly Release of Primary Dealer Positions, Transactions, and Financing) Co robią FCB (zachodnie banki centralne): Co robią spekulanci: