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- US Trading: After last week’s failed attempt to break 1294 the SPX is again testing its 200-day moving average and in this context we have to take into account a re-test of the recent low at 1258. However, with our daily trend work bottoming out, weekly momentum indicators at oversold extremes and market sentiment at contrarian levels our short-term view is unchanged. Tactically we see the SPX trading in a bottoming process with risk to overshoot to 1250 and worst case 1233. From a cyclical perspective the market is trading in the time window of a 4-month cycle low, which means we continue to see the SPX starting a tactical (corrective and low volume) counter trend rally from a late June/early July low into deeper July if not even into early August. We reiterate last week’s call and would use weakness to buy.
- US Strategy: Our long-term view is unchanged. The early May top in the SPX represents only the beginning of a larger distributive top-building process that completes the 2009 cyclical bull market. After a potential tactical bounce into early August we expect another significant down leg in risk assets into early Q4 as part of a new cyclical bear market that should finally last into H1 2012.
- European Trading: The Euro Stoxx is retesting its June 16th low and even a break of 2700 we would see as just a temporary overshoot in a tactical bottoming process. In the second half of the week, at latest early next week, we expect a significant bounce/rally starting into deeper July. We continue to favor a stronger bounce in basic resource, construction, technology, energy and finally also financials, where banks and insurance are testing their next support levels.
- Keep an eye on the SMI and the Swedish OMX. Both markets have been underperforming strongly but are trading in a final wave 5 of an impulsive decline. We shouldn’t be too far away from an important tactical low, so we are looking for a key reversal and/or a bullish daily candle as the starting point for a short but potentially sharp counter trend rally into deeper July.
- Inter Market Analysis: From a cross asset class perspective the correlation in financial markets remain rather stable. Following our early May tactical top call for risk assets we saw the favored stronger corrections in commodities and equities, whereas the US dollar and the bond market could profit from the rising risk aversion. From a timing standpoint we continue to think that risk is moving into an important tactical low either this week and/or at the latest next week. If so, it would have important implications from a cross asset perspective.
- In a risk on trade into deeper July/early August we would see bonds, the US dollar, and particularly the CHF taking a breather (which is bullish SMI), whereas we should see a bigger rally starting in the commodity area. Gold, oil and grains are a buy into weakness. On the currency side we expect a rally attempt in the AUD, which was surprisingly stable during the recent correction in risk.
- Asian Corner: We are seeing more and more relative strength in Asia and emerging markets. With our trend work starting to turn bullish for HK, India, KOSPI and Nikkei-225, we are getting encouraging signals out of Asia. The BOVESPA we see in the late stages of its current tactical decline. Buy the BOVESPA with a break above 61650. We expect a mean reversion rally back to its 200-day moving average at 67000.
- In our June 15 weekly report we suggested to buy China into further weakness and position for a rally into July. On Friday the Shanghai Composite broke its April downtrend, which we see as latently bullish for risk and in line with our tactical bottoming scenario for the Western markets. We reiterate our recent call and would use weakness to buy!