28 lipca 2011

Wykres dnia - udział poszczególnych państw w papierach AAA - 2

Nawiązując do "udział poszczególnych państw w papierach AAA wczorajszy WD od Nomura: [..]
We find that the size of alternative AAA-rated investments is small relative to the Treasury market. The largest and most obvious substitute for Treasuries is other AAA government bonds. We are already seeing some evidence of safe haven flows into the UK, Canadian, Australian and Swedish bond markets. Canada and Australia, in particular, have seen significant inflows over the past two years, as central banks gradually accumulate more alternative currencies in their FX reserves. These new safe haven flows could push these currencies even higher. [..] US Treasuries are by far the largest pool of investable AAA-rated assets with $11.1bn outstanding. The size of alternative AAA-rated investment is relatively small. The combined total of all other outstanding AAA-rated government bonds is only $7.2trn. If we include the outstanding AAA-rated supranational bonds ($1.5trn – see inset chart), we reach a total of only $8.7trn [..] The second biggest pool of AAA-rated government bonds are German Bunds at $1.72trn, followed closely by French bonds at $1.70trn. However, there have been persistent concerns that France could eventually lose its AAA-status even though it is not officially under a „negative watch‟ by any credit rating agencies. Nevertheless, in the face of concerns over the current fiscal crisis in Europe and the potential for a break-up of the eurozone, many investors would likely prefer to hold bonds elsewhere. Next on the list in terms of total amount outstanding is the UK with $1.3trn. Last year, there was significant speculation that the UK could lose its AAA-rating, but a significant and credible fiscal consolidation plan dramatically reduced that risk. However, with the economy remaining weak because of the fiscal restraint, a small probability remains that fiscal receipts disappoint leading to a larger fiscal deficit. Considering this risk, many investors may contemplate investing in Canada, with total government debt outstanding of 1.0trn, as well as other smaller and stable AAA-rated countries like Australia ($0.3trn) and Sweden ($0.1trn). These countries have a proven track record when it comes to fiscal policy and also boast a relatively buoyant economy. In addition, Canada and Australia benefit from large commodity wealth. We are already seeing some evidence of safe haven flows into the UK, Canadian, Australian and Swedish bond markets. Over the past few weeks, we have seen these bond markets outperform the US bond market, while their respective currencies appreciate against the USD. Note that the appreciation in both CAD and AUD has been larger than that implied by changes in commodity prices. In the case of Canada and Australia, both countries have already seen significant inflows over the past two years, as central banks gradually accumulate more alternative currencies in their FX reserves. However, these new safe haven flows could push these currencies even higher.
20110727 NOM CoD Alternative AAA Investments

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