Od początku wydania decyzji przez SNB skłaniam się że tak pod warunkiem BRAKU bańki w Szwajcarii, więcej w raporcie Can currency pegs succeed poniżej. Zainteresowanych zachęcam do tłumaczenia i opracowania plików graficznych PNG z pomocą darmowego programu Jshot. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has just pegged the Swiss franc to the euro at aCHF/EUR rate of 1.20. This raises the question of what conditions must be met forpegs to succeed. Past experience shows that:
- pegging a weak currency to a strong currency (Spain and Italy to Germany during the European Monetary System, South Korea and Thailand to the United States in the mid-1990s) fails; the central bank of the weak currency country loses its reserves by defending the peg, which leads to its abandonment and success of speculative attacks;
- pegging a strong currency to a weak currency (China to the United States, now Switzerland to the euro) can succeed if it is credible, otherwise the central bank of the strong currency country must accumulate huge foreign exchange reserves, leading to excessive monetary creation which forces it to abandon the peg;
- moreover, the countries' economic cycles and long-run growth and inflation must be close: pegging the exchange rate requires that the interest rates must not be too different, otherwise massive capital flows would threaten the peg; there cannot be any major differences between monetary policies, which means that the cycles, long-run growth, and longrun inflation must be similar.