10 października 2011

Rabobank - Polska do roku 2022

Może ktoś zechce się temu przyjrzeć z bliska - ponad 86 stronicowy raport o Polsce z przewidywaniami do roku 2022 od Rabobank (BGŻ w Polsce).

28 komentarzy:

  1. ===
    Moody:
    Prawdziwy test zobowiązania polskiego rządu do dyscypliny fiskalnej nastąpi w '12
    10.10. Warszawa (PAP) - Wynik wyborów wskazuje na mniejszą zmienność polityki polskiego rządu, jednak prawdziwy test zobowiązania rządu do dyscypliny fiskalnej nastąpi w przyszłym roku - ocenia agencja ratingowa Moody's.

    "Zwycięstwo Platformy Obywatelskiej wskazuje na mniejszą zmienność polityki prowadzonej przez rząd, jednak prawdziwy test zobowiązania rządu do dyscypliny fiskalnej przyjdzie w przyszłym roku" - napisano w komunikacie agencji przesłanym PAP.

    Rating Polski w agencji Moody's to A2, z perspektywą stabilną
    ===
    Standard&Poor
    wynik wyborów bez wpływu na rating Polski
    10.10. Warszawa (PAP) - Wynik wyborów parlamentarnych nie ma bezpośredniego wpływu na rating Polski, istotniejsze jest, czy nowy rząd przeprowadzi dodatkowe działania konsolidujące finanse publiczne, poza tymi, które dotychczas ogłoszono - poinformowała w poniedziałkowym komunikacie agencja Standard&Poor's.

    "Skład przyszłego rządu sam w sobie nie jest czynnikiem, który Standard&Poor's bierze pod uwagę przy ustalaniu ratingu. Koncentrujemy się na tym, czy nowy rząd w związku z koniecznością utrzymania długu poniżej określonych poziomów przeprowadzi dodatkowe działania mające na celu konsolidację finansów publicznych, poza tymi obecnie przedstawionymi" - napisano w komentarzu do wyborów. (PAP)
    ===
    Fitch
    Nowy rząd powinien zweryfikować plan konsolidacji fiskalnej

    Nowy rząd, który powstanie po niedzielnych wyborach parlamentarnych w Polsce, powinien zweryfikować plan konsolidacji fiskalnej w świetle wolniejszego wzrostu gospodarczego, uważa agencja ratingowa Fitch Ratings.

    " Fitch Ratings uważa, że nowy rząd powinien zweryfikować plan konsolidacji fiskalnej w świetle wolniejszego wzrostu gospodarczego, jeśli Polska nadal chce być w stanie spełnić kryteria konwergencji zapisane w traktacie z Maastricht" - głosi komunikat agencji.

    "Cel rządu, tj. obniżenie deficytu budżetowego do poniżej 3% PKB w przyszłym roku zasadza się na optymistycznej prognozie wzrostu wynoszącej 4%, podczas gdy Fitch prognozuje 3,3% na przyszły rok. Jeśli rząd poważnie podchodzi do osiągnięcia celu wynoszącego 3% PKB w przyszłym roku, będzie musiał wdrożyć bardziej drastyczne rozwiązania w polityce fiskalnej. Prawdopodobnie będzie to wymagać dalszych cięć wydatków" - czytamy dalej.

    Jak podkreśla agencja, ostateczne wyniki nie są jeszcze znane, ale najbardziej prawdopodobnym scenariuszem jest kontynuacja koalicji Platformy Obywatelskiej (PO) i Polskiego Stronnictwa Ludowego (PSL).

    Fitch spodziewa się, że tej koalicji uda się obniżyć deficyt sektora rządowego i samorządowego (tzw. general government deficit) do 5,6% PKB w tym roku z 8,0% PKB w ub.r. (ISB)

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  2. ===
    "FT": reformy strukturalne w Polsce są pilne
    Londyn
    Reformy strukturalne w Polsce są pilne, jeśli wzrost gospodarczy ma się utrzymać, a deficyt finansów publicznych szacowany w br. na 5,6 proc. PKB ma spaść poniżej 3 proc. PKB w 2012 r. - sądzi "Financial Times".

    Gazeta zauważa zarazem, że premier Donald Tusk jest ostrożny z natury i nie zanosi się na to, by w drugiej kadencji miał się okazać śmielszy. W tym kontekście, z punktu widzenia inwestorów, "FT" nazywa jego zwycięstwo "dobrą wiadomością, ale tylko w pewnym zakresie".

    "Wprawdzie kryzys w strefie euro nie zaszkodził Polsce, niebędącej jej członkiem, ale kraj stoi przed trudnymi wyzwaniami, wobec których Tusk musi okazać śmiałość, jeśli chce im stawić czoła" - stwierdza komentarz gazety, opublikowany na portalu "FT" w poniedziałek po południu.

    "Korekta (fiskalna - PAP) musi zostać osiągnięta mimo pogorszenia globalnego otoczenia dla gospodarki. (...) Jednak Tusk nie powinien dopuścić do opóźniania trudnych decyzji, których kraj potrzebuje" - dodaje "FT".

    Gazeta przyznaje, że w przeszłości ostrożna postawa premiera przyniosła wymierne, pozytywne efekty - Polska wyszła obronną ręką z kryzysu 2009 r., ale na obecnym etapie nie da się dłużej odkładać pilnych reform strukturalnych, wśród których wskazuje na redukcję deficytu i prywatyzację.

    Model wzrostu polskiej gospodarki oparty był na przyciąganiu zagranicznych inwestycji, przyroście kredytu i ekspansji budownictwa m.in. w ramach przygotowań do Euro 2012. Gazeta nie pisze wprost, że taki model jest zagrożony, ale z kontekstu wynika, że może okazać się trudniejszy. (PAP)

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  3. Fitch Says Poland Needs to Reassess Budget on Slower Growth
    Poland needs to reassess its fiscal consolidation plans since economic growth next year may be slower than the “optimistic” 4 percent rate needed to cut the budget deficit below the government’s target of 3 percent of gross domestic product, Fitch Ratings said today in a statement.

    “More drastic” fiscal measures are needed if the government is “serious” about reaching the deficit target, Fitch said. While the ratings company said it doesn’t expect “significant slippage” of budget targets now that the coalition government has won re-election, such concern will remain as “a key rating driver.”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-10/fitch-says-poland-needs-to-reassess-budget-on-slower-growth.html

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  4. ===
    WSJ:
    Poland's PM Wins New Term
    Tusk Fends Off Kaczynski, Worries About Economy; a Focus on Deeper European Ties
    WARSAW—Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist political party was headed toward victory in parliamentary elections Sunday, setting the country on a course of deepening ties with its European neighbors amid the Continent's economic crisis.

    An exit poll conducted jointly for Polish public broadcaster TVP and commercial network TVN 24 showed Mr. Tusk's Civic Platform with 39.6% of the vote, compared with 30.1% for its main rival, the socially conservative Law and Justice Party led by former Premier Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

    Official results were expected by early Monday, but Mr. Kaczynski conceded defeat on Sunday night.

    It was unclear whether Civic Platform and its partner in the current governing coalition, the Peasants Party, which captured 8.2% of the vote, would have a parliamentary majority or whether they would need the backing of a third party to remain in power.

    Speaking before a crowd of cheering supporters late Sunday, Mr. Tusk said Civic Platform's triumph amid relatively heavy turnout was evidence "of an optimistic Poland that believes in its strengths, that wants to move forward despite difficulties."

    Mr. Tusk, who had defeated Mr. Kaczynski in 2007 to become prime minister, said "the next four years will be an even bigger challenge" and pledged to "work twice as hard" because "Poles have a right to a higher quality of life."

    Poland was the only member of the European Union to avoid a recession in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. But as the euro zone has struggled, growth in Poland has slackened and unemployment, especially among the young, remains stubbornly high.

    As Europe's economic woes have increasingly been felt here, dissatisfaction with Mr. Tusk's generally probusiness government has mounted, allowing Mr. Kaczynski's party, whose base has traditionally been older Poles in rural areas, to gain some ground in public-opinion surveys.

    "Sooner or later, we will win, because we are right," Mr. Kaczynski said Sunday. "We stick to our conviction that Poland needs far-reaching changes."

    A new party of liberals that supports gay rights, liberalized abortion laws and greater separation of church and state in this largely Catholic country, Palikot's Support Movement, finished third, with 10.1% of the vote, according to the exit poll. The Democratic Left Alliance, heirs to the country's former Communist Party, finished fourth, with 8.2%.

    Mr. Kaczynski—whose brother, Lech, then Poland's president, died in a plane crash last year while traveling to Russia—has a tougher stance toward Russia than Mr. Tusk, who has pursued reconciliation between the neighbors and historic rivals.

    In recent days, Mr. Kaczynski, who had spent much of the campaign trying to cultivate a more conciliatory image, also made some remarks seen as hostile to Germany and its leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel, which may have hurt him among at least some voters.

    "I want Poland to be calm, not to be filled with hatred and anger," said Bozena Smiech, a retired accountant in Warsaw who said she voted for Civic Platform.

    Civic Platform is most popular among younger, more affluent urbanites, many of whom stuck by Mr. Tusk.

    After voting at a community center in the heart of the capital Sunday night, Marta Wesolowska, 33 years old, said she wasn't happy with the state of the Polish economy, in which "a lot of young people, after they finish their studies, can't find jobs." But she said she voted for Civic Platform because it is more liberal. She called the more nationalist Law and Justice "narrow-minded" and said it would take Poland "backwards."

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  5. FT:Poland: Tusk’s chance to get tough
    The relief at Poland’s election results, which appear to have returned the previous ruling coalition to power, was evident in stock and currency markets this morning. The zloty gained against the dollar, euro and Swiss franc, while the blue chip WIG20 was up by 1.2 per cent.

    Mark Robinson of Wood & Co, a central European investment bank, wrote:

    Polish equities and the PLN [zloty] are likely to firm in the very short run. The removal of the shadow of a large tax hit to Polish banks [a proposal by the opposition Law and Justice party] should help sentiment in this key sector. State-owned companies are likely to do reasonably well in reaction to a continuation of the status quo in terms of management stability.

    With 93 per cent of votes counted, the Civic Platform party of premier Donald Tusk had 39 per cent of votes cast, while the right-wing Law and Justice party had 30 per cent. The rural Polish People’s Party, Tusk’s previous coalition partner, got 8.6 per cent. That gives the previous coalition 236 seats in the 460-member parliament.

    Magdalena Polan of Goldman Sachs said in a note:

    This implies that we are likely to see continuation of the current policies which, on the one hand, would ensure that an experienced government would tackle the most immediate economic challenges, especially on the fiscal side. But, on the other hand, it also means that the next government will still continue a gradual, ‘small steps’ approach to reform, and will be unlikely to implement more decisive policies, especially addressing Poland’s large social spending and high structural deficit.

    Jacek Rostowski, Poland’s finance minister, is the only cabinet member guaranteed to return to his old job – a pledge that Tusk made towards the end of the campaign, which means there should not be any dramatic changes in policy.

    Rostowski has been slowly squeezing Poland’s fiscal policy – the deficit is expected to come to about 5.6 per cent of gross domestic product this year, and he hopes to have the deficit below 3 per cent of GDP in 2012 – an estimate many economists consider overly optimistic.

    However, both Rostowski and Tusk have been reluctant to undertake root and branch fiscal reforms advocated by many analysts, fearing the political consequences of doing so. Until now, the government has always had an excuse for inaction: first the resistance of Lech Kaczynski, the right-wing president killed in last year’s plane crash; then the fast approaching parliamentary elections.

    However, Tusk has now been returned to power for an unprecedented second term, the central bank governor and the president are allies, and he has enormous scope to tackle more difficult issues like raising the pension age, and perhaps reforming the farmers pension system, which is heavily subsidised by the state and favours farmers over other workers.

    Cezary Chrapek, an analyst for Poland’s Citi Handlowy bank, notes: “Although changes in the makeup of the government are probable, we do not expect large changes at the ministry of finance. That means that the current fiscal policy, which aims at a gradual reduction of the deficit while at the same time avoiding complex fiscal consolidation, will continue.”

    Two factors could change that. The economic picture out of western Europe is looking increasingly gloomy, which could prompt faster action. Also, Janusz Palikot, a rebel Civic Platform politician who started his own anti-clerical and economically liberal party and won 9.9 per cent of the vote, could show Tusk that there is an audience for bolder action.

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  6. FT: Poland: Tusk gores Kaczynski
    Prime minister Donald Tusk became the first Polish leader since the fall of Communism to retain power by winning Sunday’s parliamentary election by a wide margin.

    According to exit polls, Tusk’s liberal Civic Platform won over 39 per cent, easily beating off a challenge from Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s conservative Law and Justice party, which secured only about 30 per cent of the vote, despite pre-poll suggestions of a close race. The results should cheer investors – who feared an indecisive verdict might complicate Polish politics at a critical time in Europe.

    Tusk claimed victory soon after the exit polls were announced, saying: ”I believe that these next four years will be better, faster, it will be those about which we dreamed, when the platform was established.”

    It remains to be seen whether he will deliver. In the four years since 2007, his government has successfully steered Poland through the global crisis whilst maintaining one of the highest economic growth rates in the European Union. But public debt, boosted by growth-promoting deficits, is close to legal ceilings, giving Tusk little fiscal manoeuvring room in the face of any possible new shocks, such as the eurozone crisis.

    According to the TNS OBOP poll for TVN television, Civic Platform won 39.6 per cent and Law and Justice 30.1 per cent. With the Platform’s coalition partner PSL, the peasants’ party, winning a forecast 8.2 per cent of the vote, the two parties are predicted to have a majority in the new parliament with 239 seats out of 460. That’s only one less than four years ago.

    The verdict, if confirmed, is a political triumph for Tusk and his colleagues. In 2007, they benefited from a widespread reaction against the divisive rule of Jaroslaw Kaczynski and his Law and Justice party, supported by Jaroslaw’s twin brother Lech, Poland’s president until his death in last year’s Smolensk air crash.

    With a record high turnout of 53.9 per cent, Tusk’s Platform then won 41.5 per cent of the vote, and his PSL ally 8.9 per cent. This time, with a ower turnout of 47.7 per cent, he won by almost as big a margin.

    Timothy Ash, strategist at RBS, said it was a “market-friendly election result” and a vote for “steady-as-she-goes” policies. An important result for Poland and for its EU partners.

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  7. FT: Poland’s Tusk wins historic second term
    Poland's governing centrist coalition led by premier Donald Tusk looked set to win a small majority in parliament following Sunday's election. The victory would deliver Mr Tusk an unprecedented second term in office, something that has not happened since the end of communism in 1989.

    With 93 per cent of votes counted, Mr Tusk's Civic Platform party had won 38.96 per cent of votes cast, while the rightwing opposition Law and Justice party had 30 per cent. The rural Polish People's Party, Mr Tusk's previous coalition partner, took 8.55 per cent.
    Aleksander Smolar, president of the Stefan Batory Foundation, a Warsaw-based think tank, said he expects Mr Tusk to rebuild the same coalition as before and follow the similar policies.

    Assuming that the final vote count does not change much, that gives the previous coalition 236 seats in the 460-member parliament.

    “This is the greatest honour that we will be able to continue working for you for the next four years,” Mr Tusk told a cheering crowd immediately after the polls closed.

    The result was greeted with relief by markets, which had been worried about a pre-election surge by Law and Justice, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, fearing that party's traditional suspicion of Germany and Russia, as well as high-tax populist promises could jeopardise Poland's status as an island of stability in an otherwise crisis-ridden European Union.

    The result is a vindication for the leadership of Mr Tusk at a time of gloom and crisis in the rest of the EU, where politicians are bearing the brunt of the blame for failing to extricate the bloc from its growing economic plight.

    Mr Kaczynski conceded defeat, but vowed to continue working to persuade Poles that the situation was not as rosy as they seem to believe.

    “Poland will send a signal that it is a stable and predictable country, which is something that had worried investors,” said Ryszard Petru, an economist with the Demos Europa think-tank. “[Mr] Tusk will stay on, which is pretty unusual in these times of crisis.”

    Poland managed to avoid recession in 2009, and although growth shows signs of slowing the country looks set to again be one of the EU's more robust economies next year.

    Poland's budget deficit will come to about 5.6 per cent of gross domestic product this year, with Jacek Rostowski, the finance minister who is likely to continue in office, expecting the deficit to fall below 3 per cent of GDP next year – a forecast that many analysts see as over-optimistic without further reforms.

    The zloty strengthened 1 per cent against the euro on Monday and the benchmark WIG20 Index rose for a fourth day as investors welcomed the result.

    However, the increasingly dire economic prospects of western Europe may force Mr Tusk and Mr Rostowski to take action on politically tricky issues like raising the retirement age, reforming a farmers’ pension system that is heavily subsidised by the state and addressing social spending.

    The campaign also showed the risks of Mr Tusk's caution over implementing reforms – he has made clear his distaste for dramatic upheaval, preferring incremental changes instead. However, the rise of a new party led by a Janusz Palikot, rebel former MP of Mr Tusk's who created a party that melds anticlericalism, openness towards gays and drug legalisation as well as an economically liberal programme and won a surprisingly strong 9.9 per cent in the election, shows that there is an audience for greater boldness.

    “Civic Platform has disenchanted its natural middle class electorate by refusing to undertake deeper reforms,” said Mr Smolar.

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  8. Bloomberg
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    Polish Premier Faces Budget-Deficit Challenge After Winning Second Term

    Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who won yesterday’s general election, must focus on cutting the budget gap to reverse a zloty plunge as investors shy away from the European Union’s biggest eastern country.

    Tusk’s Civic Platform is set to win 206 seats in the 460- seat parliament after getting 39 percent of the vote, based on results from 99.5 percent of precincts reporting, the Electoral Commission said today. The Peasants Party, Tusk’s coalition partner for the last four years, would take 28 seats with 8.4 percent support, giving the two parties a majority.

    The government pledged to narrow the deficit to 2.9 percent of gross domestic product next year, counting on 4 percent economic growth to boost revenue. Slowing economic growth and the euro region’s debt crisis may derail the plan unless the government takes “more drastic” measures, Fitch Ratings said today.

    “The incoming Polish government needs to reassess the country’s fiscal consolidation plan in light of slower growth if Poland wants to remain on target to meet the” criteria for euro adoption, Jeremy Carter, managing director at Fitch Ratings, said in a statement from London today.
    Zloty, Bonds Gain

    The zloty traded at a three-week high of 4.315 per euro at 1:30 p.m. in Warsaw. The currency has slumped about 9.5 percent against the euro this year as investors shy away from emerging markets on concern Europe’s debt crisis will slow growth.

    Polish bonds rallied with a yield on a benchmark 10-year note falling. The yield on bonds maturing on October 2021 dropped 11 basis points to 5.63 percent.

    A Tusk win may help bolster confidence in Poland’s ability to deal with potential spillover from the euro area’s debt crisis, according to Anders Svendsen, chief economist at Nordea Bank in Copenhagen.

    “The PO victory and the lower risk of a messy coalition should be good news to the markets,” Svendsen said in an e- mailed note. “The zloty is likely to strengthen on the news that the Platform won the elections and that a three-party coalition seems to have been avoided.”

    The Platform’s main rival, Law & Justice, is set for 157 seats after winning 30 percent of the vote, returning as the largest opposition party, the Commission said.
    Greatest Challenge

    Controlling public finances will be the greatest challenge for the administration that emerges from today’s election, Jan Amrit Poser, chief economist at Bank Sarasin, said at a conference in Warsaw on Oct. 7. The general government deficit soared to 7.9 percent of GDP in 2010, exceeding the EU’s 3 percent limit for a third consecutive year.

    The International Monetary Fund is forecasting 3 percent growth and Citigroup Inc. is predicting a 1.9 percent expansion in Poland, the only member of the 27-nation EU to avoid recession during the global financial crisis.

    The budget deficit soared to 7.9 percent of GDP last year and public debt is near the threshold of 55 percent of GDP, a level that would trigger mandatory austerity measures.

    The zloty’s pre-election tumble sent local-currency government bonds down 15.7 percent in dollar terms last quarter, the third-worst returns worldwide after Greece and Hungary, according to indexes of debt due in more than one year compiled by the European Federation of Financial Analyst Societies and Bloomberg.
    ‘Twice as Hard’

    “The next government will have to work twice as hard as in the previous four years since the country faces even bigger challenges,” Tusk told a celebrating crowd of supporters at the party’s campaign headquarters yesterday.

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  9. Bloomberg:
    2/2

    President Bronislaw Komorowski must designate a new prime minister within 14 days of dismissing the outgoing government. The prime minister then has 14 days to present this new cabinet’s program to parliament and win a confidence motion with at least 231 votes in the lower chamber.

    The Peasants Party is “the most proven and credible” ally for the next government, Presidential Minister Slawomir Nowak said on private radio station RMF today. The Peasants Party will give “serious consideration” to its coalition options as the results present several possible scenarios, its leader Waldemar Pawlak said yesterday.
    Palikot, Democratic Left

    Two other parties won enough support to exceed the 5 percent threshold to gain seats in parliament. The Palikot Movement, founded by former ruling-party politician Janusz Palikot, received 10 percent of the vote, which would give it 40 seats, and the Democratic Left Alliance won 8.3 percent of the vote, or 27 seats, according to the preliminary results.

    Palikot, a former vodka distiller, clashed with Tusk last year. He urges a quicker overhaul of public finances by cutting spending on bureaucracy, the Catholic church and pensions.

    Poland, a country of 38 million people, was the biggest net recipient of EU funding in the bloc’s 2007-2013 budget, getting 67 billion euros ($97 billion) in aid to iron out differences between richer and poorer states.

    The funding, which helped the Polish economy grow 4.4 percent a year in 2007-2010, may be cut if the country doesn’t reduce its deficit to within the EU limit of 3 percent of GDP next year from 7.9 percent in 2010.
    ‘Being Boring’

    The EU aid has added an average of 1.5 percentage points to economic growth each year, according to Poland’s Regional Development Ministry, and remains essential for economic expansion as budget cuts may limit consumer demand and public investment.

    Tusk may be the first Polish prime minister to be returned to power since the fall of communism in 1989. According to Andrew Michta, head of the German Marshall Fund’s Warsaw office, that shows the Poles have matured politically over the last two decades.

    “If the numbers hold, this is in my book a vote for continuity,” he said. “I guess there is something to be said about being ‘boring’ in the case of Poland.”

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  10. Wyborcza

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    Świat patrzy na polskie wybory
    - Kanclerz Angela Merkel pogratulowała przez telefon premierowi Donaldowi Tuskowi zwycięstwa w wyborach. Powiedziała, że cieszy się na dalszą pozytywną współpracę w ramach przyjaźni polsko-niemieckiej - napisał na swoim profilu na Twitterze rzecznik rządu niemieckiego Steffen Seibert.
    [...]
    Zatrzymany Kaczyński

    Niemiecki "Der Spiegel" pisze: ''Nie jest jeszcze pewne, czy Polska, kraj boomu, da radę wykończyć stadiony, na przyszłoroczne Euro. Zadłużenie państwa w ostatnich czterech latach rosło. W końcu nastroje w gospodarce jeszcze się pogorszyły. A euforię, która ogarnęła kraj po wejściu do UE siedem lat temu, zastąpiło poczucie, że będzie gorzej. Idą ciężkie czasy."

    Tusk nie wygrał wyborów, dzięki temu, że jego polityczny bilans był tak doskonały, ale przez to, że Kaczyński też nie mógł zaproponować żadnej odpowiedzi na nadchodzący kryzys. Jego partia - PiS po raz szósty przegrała wybory (licząc w tym wybory samorządowe).

    Odkąd jego brat Lech, ówczesny polski prezydent zginął półtora roku temu w katastrofie samolotowej pod Smoleńskiem, Jarosław pielęgnuje kult zmarłych. Jest arcykapłanem narodowo-katolickiego folkloru. Popiera go 20-25 proc. wyborców. Ale wybory w Polsce rozstrzygają się w środku społeczeństwa, a tam drażniący nacjonalizm Kaczyńskiego odbierano jako anachronizm. Spotkania polityków PiS z dziećmi nic nie dały. A wystąpienia jego "aniołków" - oddziału młodych, ładnych pisowskich kobiet wywoływały śmiech.

    Prawdziwym zwycięzcą tych wyborów jest polityczny klaun Janusz Palikot, 46-latek, który na wódce zrobił miliony a potem poszedł do polityki.''

    Nudna kampania

    Francuski „Le Figaro”ocenia polską kampanię jako nudną. „Jarosław Kaczyński wyciszył swój agresywny temperament i ataki przeciwko »rządowi białej flagi « Donalda Tuska. Teorie spiskowe, eurosceptyczne tyrady i antykorupcyjne lub antykomunistyczne krucjaty wyszły z mody. Polska się znormalizowała i PiS musiał wrócić do środka społeczeństwa. Jego szef przestał straszyć” - pisze francuski dziennik. I cytuje politologa Pawła Świebodę: „A gdy na scenie nie ma tego »złego «, to wyborcy nie mają powodu, by się mobilizować”. Jak pisze "Le Figaro", "faux pas Kaczyńskiego spadło liberałom z nieba. W książce pt. "Polska naszych marzeń" szef PiS, niezdolny do pozbycia się obsesyjnej germanofobii, wywołał oburzenie, oskarżając Angelę Merkel, że chce podporządkować sobie Polskę.

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  11. Wyborcza

    2/2
    Z kolei hiszpański "El Pais" napisał: "Historyczne zwycięstwo dotychczasowego premiera Donalda Tuska, który będzie mógł rządzić przez następną kadencję, prawdopodobnie z poparciem swojego byłego koalicjanta, jest znakiem, że obywatele polscy wybrali stabilizację polityczną i ekonomiczną po czterech latach rządów, które pozwoliły utrzymać kraj na marginesie recesji w momencie największych konwulsji w Europie. (...) Relatywnie dobra sytuacja gospodarcza pozwoliła na zatrzymanie ultrakonserwatywnego Jarosława Kaczyńskiego, który podczas swoich rządów (2005-07) skłócił Polskę z UE, a obecnie przewodzi drugiej partii w parlamencie. Kaczyński jest przeciwnikiem polityki prywatyzacji oraz reform służby zdrowia, rent i emerytur zaproponowanych przez Tuska". Największym zaskoczeniem dla hiszpańskich dziennikarzy jest dobry wynik Ruchu Palikota, „partii antysystemowej, która zdobyła głosy polskich „ »indignados « i obywateli mających dość wpływu Kościoła katolickiego na życie polityczne w kraju”.

    Polska zrobiła wszystko dobrze

    "Jeśli wyniki z exit poll się utrzymają, będzie to pierwszy taki przypadek od upadku komunizmu, gdy polska partia wygrała drugie wybory pod rząd. Wybory były powszechnie obserwowane z powodu obaw związanych z konfrontacyjnym stanowiskiem Jarosława Kaczyńskiego odnośnie Unii Europejskiej" - napisał "New York Times". I dalej: "Analitycy chwalili ten wybór kontynuacji jako znak politycznej dojrzałości w Polsce oraz kolejny krok w rozwoju demokratycznym tego największego kraju Europy Środkowej, który wszedł do zachodnich instytucji, takich jak NATO i UE. Po raz pierwszy Polska zrobiła wszystko dobrze".

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  12. NYT
    1/2
    Polish PM Begins Building New Government After Win

    WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk took his first steps toward building a new government Monday after his centrist ruling party became the country's first ever to win re-election since the collapse of communism in 1989.
    Results of Sunday's election show that his pro-European party can maintain a narrow majority in parliament with its small coalition partner — a sign of deepening stability in this nation of 38 million.

    As well as being the first time in 22 years of Poland's post-communist history that a ruling party has won a second consecutive term, Civic Platform's success brought an end to a string of defeats for incumbent governments in Europe. Over the past year or so, a swathe of governments from Ireland to Latvia have been kicked out as they bore the cost of the economic turmoil.

    In another first, Palikot's Movement, a new left-wing party that opposes the church's influence in political life in this conservative and mainly Catholic country, entered parliament as the third largest force. It seems to be benefiting from the country's growing secularism and disenchantment with the established parties. Thanks to its strong showing, a transsexual and an openly gay activist are now poised to take seats in parliament, also unprecedented.

    Tusk took his initial steps toward creating a new government on Monday after the state electoral commission issued a near-final vote count that left no doubt that he is the winner. With a little over 39 percent of the vote, Civic Platform won nearly 10 percent more than its nearest challenger.

    Tusk met with President Bronislaw Komorowski, who said all logic indicates that Tusk will remain as prime minister. Under Polish law it is the president who charges the victor with forming a government.

    Tusk also consulted with his party leaders and met with Waldemar Pawlak, the head of his coalition partner, the Polish People's Party, a socially conservative group that represents farmers' interests and won around 8 percent of the vote.

    After the meeting, Pawlak said more time was needed and talks would continue Tuesday.

    "It is very important today to build a government that will be based on a strong majority and that will guarantee a stable functioning of the country, because times are difficult and the situation on financial markets shows that a lot of responsibility is required from state offices," he said.

    Analysts said the result suggests the government will continue with the broad thrust of its policies, which have been marked by close cooperation with the European Union and using EU funds to modernize a country still struggling to catch up economically with western Europe.

    The government has also tried to modernize the country and jolt the economy by privatizing state-run enterprises. Economic development on its watch has been impressive. The economy is growing at 4 percent this year, though it is expected to slow to around 3 percent next year in the wake of the broader slowdown across Europe.

    Critics, however, fault it for not going further in reducing regulations and otherwise reforming a country still trying to overcome the economic legacy of communism. Unemployment is nearly 12 percent and wages are still relatively low — problems that have pushed hundreds of thousands of Poles in recent years to emigrate to Britain and elsewhere.

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  13. NYT
    2/2

    The budget deficit has also been growing, and the ratings agency Fitch said Monday that the new government should implement more "drastic" fiscal measures.

    "The slowdown in Poland and the wider euro area crisis could knock Poland off course unless further, more structural action is taken," Fitch said.

    Poland has been shielded from some of the turmoil by not being part of the eurozone. It has also benefited from an influx of EU subsidies that have stimulated development, while its large internal market maintained an appetite for consumption even during the global slowdown.

    Markets reacted positively to the news, with Poland's main stock index, the WIG-20, up 3.2 percent in the afternoon, making it one of the best performers in Europe.

    "Overall, the outcome of the elections is good news for investors as pro-market policies are likely to be continued and there should be a solid parliamentary majority for fiscal reforms," Danske Bank said.

    A count by electoral authorities from 99.5 percent of constituencies, Civic Platform was well ahead of its main rival, the conservative Law and Justice party of former prime minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, which garnered nearly 30 percent support. The twin brother of President Lech Kaczynski, who died in a plane crash last year, acknowledged his defeat Sunday night.
    The count shows that a renewed coalition of Civic Platform and the Polish People's Party could have 234 seats in the 460-member lower house, or Sejm.

    The two parties enjoyed a drama-free relationship, at least in public, that added to the government's stable image — and contrasted with the public fighting that had marred past governments. Though the parties had some disagreements, they appeared to work them out behind closed doors.

    The new left-wing party, Palikot's Movement, was in third place with 10 percent. Led by entrepreneur and maverick lawmaker Janusz Palikot, the party has gained popularity promising to support gay rights, liberalize the country's strict abortion laws and legalize marijuana.

    The only other party that would make it into parliament is the Democratic Left Alliance, which won slightly over 8 percent of the votes cast.

    That marks a sharp decline for the party, the successor to the Communist party that ruled Poland before 1989. It has held power off-and-on since communism fell in 1989 but has seen its popularity decline steadily in recent years. In this election it appeared to lose voters to Palikot's Movement, which shares many of its ideological positions.

    Party chairman Grzegorz Napieralski announced Monday that he would not put himself up for re-election when his party next votes on its leadership.

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  14. NYT2

    1/3
    Palikot’s Party Signals Poland’s Move Toward a More Secular, Liberal Society
    WARSAW — Waving a gun and a sex toy at a news conference may have branded Janusz Palikot as an extreme politician, but the ensuing notoriety had its benefits. Just a few years later, one out of every 10 Polish voters cast a ballot for the socially libertarian-style party that bears the provocateur’s name.
    The parliamentary election on Sunday revealed the depth of change that Polish society has undergone over the past generation. Long pigeonholed as deeply conservative and devoutly Roman Catholic, many Poles have drifted away from the church and seek a secular state more in step with Western Europe.

    No party better encapsulates those changes than the new Palikot Movement. The philosophy student turned entrepreneur turned politician has upended conventional wisdom and ignored a tradition of tiptoeing around the church. He has campaigned to create civil unions for gay people, to legalize abortion and even to end religious education in state schools.

    When results are final, the first transsexual member is expected to enter Parliament from his party.

    Not only did Mr. Palikot’s party win 10 percent of the vote, but the centrist party he left behind, the staid and stuffy but Europe-friendly Civic Platform of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, won a resounding victory over the nationalist-conservative Law and Justice Party of former Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

    The sensation of the night, however, was Mr. Palikot and the loose alliance that gathered under the umbrella of his famous — or infamous — name. “There is a growing culture of change in Poland thanks to the fact that millions of Poles work in the European Union,” and thousands more study abroad in European countries, Mr. Palikot said.

    Political analysts interpreted the parliamentary vote Sunday as a signal that Poland would continue down the road of openness rather than slipping back into the insularity and conservatism of the past, a development that Mr. Palikot said he welcomed.

    “This clear mandate that Tusk got yesterday, the clear defeat of Law and Justice and the result of our own party is a clear sign that Tusk has a mandate from society for a more open relationship with Germany and Russia,” said Mr. Palikot, who as a philosophy student wrote his master’s thesis on Immanuel Kant.

    The Palikot Movement is nothing like the Pirate Party, which lately made a strong showing in Berlin, and it is far removed from the kind of antigovernment protests sweeping the world and occupying Wall Street. The election-night rally was filled with businessmen in suits, political consultants and other members of the Warsaw establishment. Mr. Palikot said he would defend business owners in Parliament against bureaucracy and regulation.

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  15. NYT2

    2/3

    “He is exactly the right man at exactly the right time,” said Piotr Tymochowicz, a political consultant specializing in communication, who previously worked with Andrzej Lepper, a populist politician who died in August, and who now works with Mr. Palikot. “Their aims are not the same,” he said of the two men, “but they both wanted to destroy the cemented political scene.”

    Even as a young man, Mr. Palikot, 46, had a flair for the controversial. As a teenager he was arrested for using his high school’s public address system to call for a strike after martial law was imposed in an effort to quell the Solidarity movement.

    He went on to study philosophy, before joining in the rapid liberalization of the Polish economy as it transitioned from Communism by starting a company that collected and resold wooden crates. He branched out into the liquor industry, his entrepreneurial endeavors eventually making him a millionaire, before deciding to go into politics.

    “My philosophical education gave me the idea that at the end of the day, a person has to think about more than himself,” Mr. Palikot said of his motives for becoming a politician.

    For all Mr. Palikot has done, he is forever associated with the fateful day in April 2007, when he held a news conference to draw attention to accusations of sexual abuse and even rape against police officers in the city of Lublin, and underscored his point with his provocative choice of props.

    “I think it has impeded my campaign, this pistol and vibrator,” Mr. Palikot said Monday, in a small, undecorated room at the Polish Press Agency building, more than a dozen cameramen and reporters waiting outside for him. “It gave me publicity, but on the other hand, of course, it was a very huge burden. I’ve been misunderstood, and my political rivals used it against me.”

    It was not only his political rivals, but his eventual political allies who had to think twice about him.

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  16. NYT2

    3/3
    “From when Palikot first called me, it took three weeks before I agreed to join him,” said Wanda Nowicka, 54, a women’s rights activist who ran for Parliament on the Palikot Movement ticket and was waiting Monday to see whether she had won a seat under the complicated system of allocation by party.

    “I also saw him as controversial. But he said, ‘Can I call you back?’ Then he called and called,” Ms. Nowicka said. She said she decided that society was ready for a change, after campaigns in Poland against not only abortions when the mother’s life is in danger, but even in-vitro fertilization, which the church here has strongly opposed, and Mr. Palikot might be the one to get it done.

    At times Mr. Palikot himself can sound more like a management consultant than an insurgent political force, one of the many contradictions that have made him such an intriguing figures — both to the Poles who love him and to those who hate him.

    His campaign touched a nerve with young people across the country, especially in larger cities and in particular those who felt ignored by the older political parties. “This was the first party to seriously face the issues of and problems of the gay community,” said Hubert Koszela, 20, a student who attended the Movement Palikot election night rally.

    But questions remain about Mr. Palikot’s personal wealth and his motivations. After all, he leads a party named after himself (Mr. Palikot said the name would be changed by the end of the year).

    “I worry about the fact that he’s this strong figure around whom everything is revolving,” said Cezary Michalski, a Polish journalist who published a book of interviews with Mr. Palikot last year. Mr. Palikot could be unpredictable and prone to making personal attacks, Mr. Michalski said, as when he publicly demanded that Mr. Kaczynski, who is unmarried, declare whether he was gay or not. He did not, however, have a problem with the most infamous incident.

    “The vibrator and the gun themselves were outrageous,” Mr. Michalski said, but added that the police officers in Lublin had been accused of threatening women with weapons and sexually abusing them and Mr. Palikot had called for their superiors to be punished.

    “The form was controversial,” Mr. Michalski said, “but the content was appropriate.”

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  17. 1/2

    Trudne chwile dla finansów publicznych
    Janusz Jankowiak 29-08-2011
    W tym roku rząd powinien zacząć pożyczać pieniądze od inwestorów już na poczet przyszłorocznych wydatków

    Zadłużenie Skarbu Państwa na koniec czerwca 2011 roku wzrosło o 9,3 mld zł (1,2 proc.) i wyniosło 752,2 mld zł. Z tej kwoty 72,7 proc. stanowił dług denominowany w złotych (73,1 proc. miesiąc wcześniej). Według informacji Ministerstwa Finansów, uważnie analizowanych przez inwestorów, w 2012 roku zapadają obligacje rynkowe o wartości 105,3 mld zł. Zapadalność długu zagranicznego sięga zaś kwoty 3,6 mld euro.

    Pozwala to w przybliżeniu oszacować przyszłoroczne potrzeby pożyczkowe brutto, które wyniosą 140 – 150 mld zł. Sądzę, że Ministerstwo Finansów, które zrealizowało już ponad 90 proc. tegorocznych potrzeb pożyczkowych, wykorzystując wciąż sprzyjające warunki rynkowe, powinno jeszcze przed końcem roku rozpocząć prefinansowanie potrzeb przyszłorocznych. Byłoby to postępowanie w warunkach dużej niepewności ze wszech miar wskazane. Podobnie jak utrzymywanie relatywnie wysokiej poduszki płynnościowej (ok. 50 mld zł).

    Dane z kolejnych miesięcy potwierdzają, że na koniec tego roku deficyt budżetu państwa może być o 8 – 10 mld zł niższy od zapisanego w budżecie. Wyniesie więc 30 – 32 mld zl. Deficyt całego sektora finansów publicznych powinien spaść do 4,9 – 5,1 proc. PKB. Problemem nie jest jednak, o czym już wielokrotnie mówiliśmy, budżet tegoroczny, lecz przyszłoroczny. Wystarczy rzucić okiem na zaniechany przez rząd projekt, którego nie udało się przeforsować przed wyborami. Dla przypomnienia – tabela nr 1.

    Jak widać, większość podstawowych założeń makroekonomicznych, jakimi przy projektowaniu pozycji fiskalnej posługiwał się dotychczas rząd, jest z całą pewnością nieaktualna. Prawdę powiedziawszy, była już nieaktualna w momencie ich prezentacji.

    Podobnie zresztą mają/miały się sprawy z założeniami dotyczącymi wielkości nominalnych (porównaj tabela nr 2).

    Urealnienie założeń do projektu przyszłorocznego budżetu według wielkości prognozowanych przeze mnie wskazuje, że zamiast 270,8 mld zł dochodów podatkowych można oczekiwać co najwyżej 250 mld zł, a kwota sięgająca 329,6 mld planowanych wydatków może wzrosnąć do ponad 340 mld zł. Oznaczałoby to, że dla osiągnięcia 25 – 28 mld zł deficytu dochody niepodatowe musiałyby wynieść 59 – 62 mld zł przy prognozowanych 18,5 mld zł oraz wykonanych w tym roku ok. 39 mld zł. Jest to kompletnie nierealistyczne.

    A skoro tak, to mamy kłopot. Dla zmieszczenia się na ścieżce konwergencji (spadek deficytu sektora finansów poniżej 3 proc. PKB) potrzebne by było znalezienie oszczędności w wydatkach lub zwiększenie przyszłorocznych dochodów do kwoty nie mniejszej niż 39 – 42 mld zł. Takie zadanie jest wykonalne jedynie w przypadku podniesienia obciążeń podatkowych, parapodatkowych lub obu z nich oraz drastycznych oszczędności w wydatkach.

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  18. 2/2

    Dałoby się to zrobić, ale nie sądzę, żeby jakikolwiek rząd podjął się takiego zadania ani przed, ani po wyborach. Politycy nawet nie chcą dziś jeszcze o tym mówić. Nie bez powodu: zacieśnienie fiskalne tej skali zepchnęłoby nasz wzrost gospodarczy poniżej 1,0 proc. Stąd realistyczna ocena sytuacji wskazuje, że zaproponowana ścieżka konwergencji fiskalnej zostanie złagodzona, a deficyt budżetu państwa pozostanie na poziomie zbliżonym do tegorocznego wykonania. Deficyt sektora spadnie zaś o 0,5 – 0,8 pkt proc. do 4,0 – 4,2 proc. PKB. Oznaczać to będzie, że mniejsze niż planowano dostosowanie fiskalne odbywać się będzie wciąż poza budżetem państwa. Skala redukcji deficytu zależy od determinacji rządu. Może ona być mniejsza lub większa w zależności od odwagi sięgnięcia po środki równoważenia budżetu znajdujące się w dobrze już rozpoznanym, dostępnym od ubiegłego roku, menu.

    W mojej ocenie umiarkowane, sięgające 1,0 – 1,2 proc. PKB, złagodzenie ścieżki konwergencji fiskalnej będzie tolerowane przez rynek finansowy. A to dlatego, że podobne procesy odstępstw od zaostrzania polityki fiskalnej, uzasadnione rachitycznym wzrostem PKB, zachodzić będą w większości europejskicj krajów, w tym w największych: w Niemczech, we Francji, a niektóre rządy, jak w Danii, uruchomią nawet nowe pakiety stymulacyjne. Rewizja planów zacieśnienia fiskalnego nastąpi również w USA.

    Autor jest głównym ekonomistą Polskiej Rady Biznesu

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  19. WSJ2:
    New Anticlerical Party Stirs Poland’s Political Scene
    WARSAW — The upstart anti-clerical political party of Janusz Palikot captured a surprising 10% of the popular vote and 40 seats in Poland’s lower house of parliament in elections Sunday.
    But the brash 47-year-old entrepreneur who defected from Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform late last year failed to garner the role he had sought: As kingmaker.

    Civic Platform and its current coalition partner won enough seats — 234 in the 460-seat chamber — to form a new government on their own, without Mr. Palikot’s insurgents.

    Mr. Palikot made a public splash during an initial public offering for his vodka maker, Polmos Lublin SA, and joined Civic Platform in 2005.

    He quickly became known for frank and at times brutal language, deployed against his political opponents, especially Poland’s late president, Lech Kaczynski, and the conservative Law and Justice party now headed by Mr. Kaczynski’s twin brother, Jaroslaw.

    He has used sex toys, guns and even a pig’s head — that he brought to a TV studio — as props for his in-your-face messages.

    He built his new party—calling it Palikot’s Support Movement—from scratch, with a focus on a socially liberal, anticlerical agenda. He has come out in favour of gay rights, looser abortion laws and greater separation between church and state.

    He picked a transsexual woman, Anna Grodzka, as his party’s leader in Krakow, a conservative city in southern Poland. Mrs. Grodzka, who was born a man and completed a sex change last year, won more than 18,000 votes and will become Poland’s first transsexual parliamentarian.

    Mr. Palikot also welcomed a well-known gay rights activist, Robert Biedron, to his lists. Mr. Biedron had left the Democratic Left Alliance, denouncing it as not credible. The Democratic Left Alliance, the heir to Poland’s communist party, suffered a painful defeat and will only have 27 seats in the new legislature, compared to 40 for the Palikot Movement. Mr. Biedron received about 14,000 votes in Gdynia, northern Poland, slightly fewer than Leszek Miller, a popular former prime minister who represented the post-communist party.

    Mr. Palikot himself won more than 74,000 votes in Warsaw, nearly twice as many as his one of main opponents, Ryszard Kalisz, a jovial parliament veteran from the Democratic Left Alliance.

    Mr. Palikot’s party’s success is a sign that public sentiment is shifting leftwards, said Pawel Kowal, a conservative member of the European Parliament and head of the “Poland Comes First,” or PJN, a party that only won about 2% of the vote on Sunday.

    “What we find on the political scene today is a marked shift to the left,” Mr. Kowal told reporters. “Law and Justice fails to see this most important vector in the Polish political scene, focusing only on looking at Civic Platform. The most important thing going on today is the threat of leftist extremism, the threat to common sense and social order.”

    Mrs. Grodzka Friday told broadcaster Polsat News she was on a mission to make the public in Poland, a Catholic nation, more familiar with transsexual people. She also said she joined the Palikot Movement after becoming disenchanted with the post-communist party.

    “The Democratic Left Alliance has decayed just like the Polish democracy. The party’s politicians have for years only took care of their own interest and the interests of mainstream voters, forgetting that democracy isn’t a dictatorship of the majority,” she wrote on her website during the election campaign. “I decided to be a candidate for Palikot Movement because I want the voice of people who are excluded and discriminated against in the Polish political system to be heard.”

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  20. WSJ3:
    Polish Ruling Coalition Secures Majority Based on 99.5% of Vote
    WARSAW — Markets—fearful of political uncertainty amid Europe’s economic woes—breathed a sigh of relief Monday as official results from Poland’s parliamentary elections showed that the country’s coalition government had secured a majority in the lower house.

    The state electoral commission said that, based on a count of 99.5% of the vote, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform, seen as market-friendly, had won 206 seats in the Sejm, as the lower chamber of parliament is known. Its coalition partner, the Peasants Party, won 28 seats. Together they will have 234 seats in the 460-seat Sejm.

    Mr. Tusk’s victory marks the first time a Polish premier has been re-elected in the nation’s post-communist history, a sign of stabilizing domestic politics. Polish stocks climbed and the local currency, the zloty, strengthened against the euro.

    Leaders of both Civic Platform and the Peasants Party have said they intend to govern together for another four years.

    The Civic Platform victory and the lower risk of a messy coalition in Poland should be good news to the markets, if confirmed in the final voting count, said Anders Svendsen, Chief Analyst at Nordea. A Civic Platform-Peasants Party coalition was the most likely outcome of the election, but Friday afternoon a lot of uncertainties persisted, Mr. Svendsen said.

    The coalition in its second term will aim at a gradual deficit reduction without comprehensive fiscal consolidation, Citigroup said. Such a result is either market neutral or even slightly positive, as the other parties were in favor of fiscal loosening, it added.

    Poland’s President Bronislaw Komorowski said “logic indicates” that Mr. Tusk will be nominated prime minister for a new term. However, he said he would decide on the issue after consultations with political parties, that started Monday, and after the official results of the election have been published, which is expected Tuesday.

    The country’s Conservative Law and Justice party is expected to win 158 seats in the Sejm and become the largest opposition group. An upstart leftist party, the Palikot Movement, is expected to win 40 seats, while the Democratic Left Alliance is projected to win 27 seats, the electoral commission said. The German minority in Poland is likely to win one seat in the new legislature.

    The president said Monday he wanted to appoint a new prime minister as soon as possible.

    Poland’s incoming government must implement more far reaching fiscal measures if it wants to remain on target to meet the convergence criteria of the Maasticht treaty for adopting the euro as its currency, Fitch Ratings said Monday.

    Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the conservative leader, conceded his defeat on Sunday night, pledging to continue his work and predicting that some day his party will return to power, possibly with a two-thirds majority in the Sejm, capable of changing the country’s constitution.

    For the Democratic Left Alliance, the election result is particularly painful. The party won 41% of the vote in 2001, but partially disintegrated amid corruption scandals and suffered a defeat in 2005, winning just 11%. This year’s result was far below expectations and prompted the party’s leader, Grzegorz Napieralski, to quit.

    “My team has lost,” Mr. Napieralski told reporters, adding he will set a timetable for a party congress to elect new authorities.

    “I will not run for the post of the party chairman,” he added.

    Mr. Napieralski came third in last year’s presidential election with nearly 14% of the vote, a result considered a success at the time. At 36 years of age, he was supposed to eventually lead the party to a new victory. Instead, he oversaw its decline, along the way losing prominent same-sex union and feminist activists to Janusz Palikot, the founded of the anticlerical Palikot Movement.

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  21. 1/2
    Niemcy - "FAZ": Zachód musi pozwolić Polsce odgrywać nową rolę w UE
    11.10. Berlin (PAP) - Potężne kraje na zachodzie kontynentu muszą pozwolić Polsce odgrywać nową, silną rolę w UE - ocenia we wtorek niemiecki dziennik "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung", komentując ponowne zwycięstwo PO i premiera Donalda Tuska w wyborach parlamentarnych.

    Gazeta ocenia też, że sukces rządu Tuska potwierdza sukces projektu rozszerzenia UE na wschód.

    "W środku europejskiego gradobicia Donaldowi Tuskowi, szefowi rządu szóstego co do wielkości kraju w UE, udało się to, na co inni już prawie stracili nadzieję. Gdy w Irlandii, Holandii i Portugalii partie rządzące przegrały wybory, a w Madrycie i Rzymie dni tamtejszych premierów wydają się policzone, szef polskiego rządu pozostanie na stanowisku, tak jakby w minionych latach nie było żadnego kryzysu" - pisze "FAZ".

    Dodaje, że Polacy nie tylko pozwolili Tuskowi rządzić przez całą kadencję, ale jeszcze ponownie mu zaufali. "Faktycznie ponowny wybór premiera w czasie kryzysowego zgiełku świadczy o tym, że większość Polaków zgadza się z jego polityczną linią, dzięki której Tusk przeprowadził swój kraj przez turbulencje minionych lat bezpieczniej niż inni w Europie" - ocenia dziennik. Według komentatora "FAZ" inaczej niż w innych europejskich krajach zobowiązanie rządu do dyscypliny finansowej jest akceptowane przez wszystkie polityczne obozy.

    Jak pisze niemiecki dziennik, turbulencje ostatnich lat nie zdołały wzmocnić eurosceptycznych nastrojów. "Tusk ze swoim niemal euforycznie proeuropejskim programem zyskał poparcie obywateli. Wpłynęła na to niezatarta pamięć o wojnach, napaściach i reżimach okupacyjnych XX wieku. Inaczej niż nieco zapominalscy Europejczycy na Zachodzie Polacy wiedzą do dziś, że Europa jest dla narażonych na zagrożenie państw ubezpieczeniem od pożaru i gradu, jeśli nawet nie ubezpieczeniem na życie" - ocenia "FAZ".

    Jak pisze, ponowne zwycięstwo wyborcze europejskiego liberała Tuska w największym kraju Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej jest symbolem "sukcesu ważnego europejskiego projektu, jakim było rozszerzenie UE na wschód".

    "Przyjęcie do UE nowych członków, które w pierwszych latach przyniosło ze sobą przede wszystkim kłótnie i koszty, stało się tymczasem elementem politycznej i ekonomicznej stabilizacji. Polska jest dziś ważniejszym partnerem handlowym Niemiec niż Rosja, a Tusk jest wśród szefów rządów o +północnych+ poglądach na gospodarkę jednym z najważniejszym partnerów Angeli Merkel" - ocenia niemiecki dziennik.

    "Europa musi wykorzystać tę siłę" - podkreśla. "Potężne kraje na starym zachodzie kontynentu, przede wszystkim Francuzi i Niemcy, muszą pozwolić Polsce odgrywać swoją nową rolę. Członkowie polskiego rządu, jak na przykład bystry minister finansów Jacek Rostowski, wciąż doświadczają tego, że nie są zapraszani, gdy kraje euro naradzają się nad ważnymi decyzjami. Przede wszystkim Paryż, czasem z zazdrością, nalega na ekskluzywność, która już dawno ma tylko formalne uzasadnienie" - ocenia "FAZ".

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    Zaznacza, że także Polacy muszą się nauczyć wykorzystywać swoje szanse i tak rozwijać swoje poparcie dla UE, by było czymś więcej niż radość z europejskich funduszy i zachodnich gwarancji bezpieczeństwa. "Kraj ten stoi na progu, za którym musi również przejąć ciężary. Żądanie coraz to większych miliardów z brukselskiej kasy jest takim samym anachronizmem, jak ślepota społeczeństwa w sprawie europejskiej polityki klimatycznej, która nad Wisłą uważana jest wyłącznie za +zagrożenie dla naszego węgla+" - ocenia "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung".

    Dodaje, że przede wszystkim premier Tusk musi zrobić wszystko, by wzmocnić awans Polski: posunąć naprzód reformę emerytur, rolniczych kas ubezpieczenia społecznego i służby zdrowia, a jednocześnie trzymać w cuglach finanse państwa. "Teraz ma do tego mandat" - pisze dziennik.

    Również "Die Welt" ocenia, że rząd Donalda Tuska jest "jednym z najstabilniejszych w Europie". "To ma oddziaływanie także na zewnątrz, o czym świadczy polska prezydencja w UE. Wprawdzie Polska nie należy do strefy euro, ale przyjęte niedawno we Wrocławiu nowe reguły stabilności (+sześciopak+) przejdą - miejmy nadzieję - do historii wspólnoty jako jeden z kamieni milowych" - ocenia gazeta.

    Dziennik zastrzega, że "komu dobrze się wiedzie, od tego też wiele się oczekuje". "Nadszedł czas, by postawić rządowi wysokie wymagania. (...) Ostatnio Polska zaciągnęła spory dług, rząd odłożył reformy. Tusk uznał, że wyborcom nie można sprawiać bólu i w wielu dziedzinach zarządził politykę spokoju" - przypomina "Welt".

    "Nie zapominajmy jednak, że utrzymać spokój w społeczeństwie, które przez minione 22 lata doświadczyło dramatycznych przełomów, jest już szczególnym osiągnięciem. Polacy uważają się za romantyków i rewolucjonistów. Cierpliwe drążenie skały raczej nie jest ich cechą. Tym wyżej należy ocenić zwycięstwo Tuska" - ocenia "Welt".(PAP)

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  23. BNP Paribas: Złoty "niekoniecznie gwiazdorem regionu"
    11.10. Londyn (PAP) - Mimo wyborczego zwycięstwa przyjaznej rynkowi PO, złoty "niekoniecznie będzie gwiazdorem regionu Europy Centralnej", ponieważ kwestia redukcji stóp procentowych stanie się aktualna z końcem tego roku - sądzi BNP Paribas.

    Optymistyczne nastawienie rynku z poniedziałku na wiadomość o wygranej PO i perspektywę przewidywalnej polityki gospodarczej realizowanej przez PO-PSL, wyrażone we wzroście popytu na złotego i polskie obligacje, bank tłumaczy "odruchową reakcją, której nie ma co się dziwić".

    W przeszłości, gdy PO wygrywała wybory, złoty umacniał się o ok. 2 proc. w okresie 1-2 tygodni po wyborach, a spread polskich obligacji do niemieckich Bundów obniżał się o ok. 15 pb w tym samym okresie - przypomina BNP Paribas.

    "Rynek zacznie się wkrótce zastanawiać nad działaniami rządu w gospodarce. Finanse publiczne wymagają niezwłocznych działań, a założenia budżetu na 2012 r. nie są realistyczne" - napisał bank we wtorkowym komentarzu.

    "Spowoduje to, że fiskalna konsolidacja będzie głębsza i może wywołać tym większe spowolnienie. Dlatego oczekiwania redukcji podstawowych stóp procentowych będą dyskutowane przed końcem tego roku" - zaznaczono w komentarzu.

    Z tego właśnie powodu analitycy banku uważają, że złoty "niekoniecznie stanie się gwiazdorem regionu (Europy Centralnej)", choć perspektywę pewnego wzrostu widzą dla pary PLN/CZK

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  24. Moody's: Perspektywa ratingu Polski może się zmienić

    Warszawa, 12.10.2011 (ISB) - Jeśli polski rząd nie przedstawi "planów awaryjnych" dotyczących redukcji deficytu budżetowego na wypadek spowolnienie gospodarczego w świetle europejskiego kryzysu zadłużeniowego, obecna stabilna perspektywa ratingu suwerennego (A2) może znaleźć się pod presją, ostrzega agencja ratingowa Moody's Investors Service.


    Wiceprezes agencji ds. ryzyka ratingów suwerennych Jaime Reusche uważa, że rządowy plan obniżenia deficytu sektora rządowego i samorządowego (tzw. general government deficit) do 2,9% PKB w 2012 r. (z planowanych na ten rok 5,6% PKB w porównaniu do 8,0% PKB w ub.r.) "może być poza zasięgiem", jak napisał w mailowej odpowiedzi na pytania agencji Bloomberg.

    "Nie zobaczyliśmy jeszcze rządowych planów awaryjnych, co z pewnością może wpłynąć na stabilną perspektywę ratingu. (…) Wyzwania przyszłości podkreślają ryzyka, które mogą prowadzić do negatywnej perspektywy" - napisał Reusche.

    Podkreślił, że Polska okazała się odporna na pierwszą fazę kryzysu, ale "w drugiej fazie ta odporność będzie dalej testowana ze względu na szoki dla bilansu rządu i gospodarki".

    Moody's prognozuje, że wzrost PKB Polski wyniesie w 2012 r. ok. 3% (rząd spodziewa się 4%). Reusche zaznacza jednak, że wzrost może okazać się mniejszy przez kryzys wynikający z zadłużenia niektórych krajów europejskich. (ISB)

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  25. Citibank -
    Okres powyborczy jest najbardziej sprzyjający do
    przeprowadzania istotnych reform a zapowiedź ich braku sugeruje niewielkie
    zmiany w polityce gospodarczej w najbliższych latach, co jest negatywnym
    czynnikiem dla krajowych aktywów.

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  26. Już w zachodniej prasie zauważyli że PO+PSL się obija

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    WSJ:
    Poland to Keep Fiscal Overhaul at Slow Pace
    WARSAW — Poland’s parliamentary election won’t lead to an immediate overhaul of the cabinet and may fail to speed up the country’s fiscal consolidation, putting pressure on Polish assets.

    The ruling coalition of the centrist Civic Platform, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and the agrarian Peasants Party, led by Deputy Prime Minister Waldemar Pawlak, secured a majority of seats in the Sejm, the lower house of parliament, in an election on Sunday. The partners, who have said they planned to govern together for another four years, are discussing the terms of a renewed coalition.

    It is a legal requirement in Poland for governments to submit their resignation at the first session of a newly inaugurated parliament. Even though Prime Minister Tusk is widely expected to be reappointed, his cabinet also needs to resign. The prime minister then is required to present a new team and request a vote of confidence from the new Sejm.

    Before the election, Mr. Tusk said a deep cabinet reshuffle was likely, although Finance Minister Jan Vincent-Rostowski would keep his job. In his first interview after the election, the prime minister said, however, that the team he leads would stay in place until the end of the year to allow ministers to complete their roles in the presidency of the Council of the European Union, which Poland is holding until Dec. 31.

    “To the president and to Deputy Prime Minister Pawlak I will propose no changes in the composition of the government until the end of [Poland's] presidency [of the European Union], meaning until the end of the year, regardless of how I assess individual ministers,” Mr. Tusk said in an interview with weekly Polityka published Wednesday.

    Quizzed about his legislative overhaul plans for the next four years, he said the government wouldn’t start big projects that would lead to budget savings in many years from now.

    “It’s not true that during the crisis–that no one knows the scale and consequences of—we can afford too costly reforms that will bring savings in a distant future,” he said. “When another storm is coming, we need to look for solutions that will secure our boat from dangerous shocks.”

    The government for the first two years of its term said it wasn’t introducing many legislative initiatives it had promised because of the veto threat from President Lech Kaczynski, whom the coalition saw as hostile.

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    After the president died in a plane crash last year, a ruling party member, Bronislaw Komorowski, became the acting head of state in his capacity of the speaker of the Sejm, before winning the presidency in early elections in 2010. The government nevertheless backtracked on a number of its promises from the 2007 election campaign, while Mr. Tusk said he wanted a policy focused on “here and now,” not a distant future.

    With the government continuing unchanged until next year, the ruling camp’s post-election zest to take bolder action to cut public spending may wane by the time the big reshuffle comes, Citigroup said Wednesday.

    The post-election period is best for introducing important policy changes and a lack of such changes may be negative for Poland’s financial markets, Citigroup’s economist Cezary Chrapek said.

    The Polish government has repeatedly said it planned to trim its general government deficit to 2.9% of economic output next year from 5.6% expected this year and 7.9% in 2010—a target economists have called ambitious or impossible to achieve. Poland is narrowing the gap through a mix of higher value-added taxes and a cap on the growth of discretionary budget spending.

    Poland’s incoming government must implement more far-reaching fiscal measures if it wants to remain on target to meet the convergence criteria of the European Union’s Maastricht treaty for adopting the euro as its currency, Fitch Ratings said Monday.

    Standard and Poor’s also said Poland’s new government would need to take additional measures aimed at consolidating its public finance beyond those outlined previously to stay with Poland’s self-imposed debt limits. The government expects public debt at 53.8% of economic output at the end of this year, according to its methodology that excludes certain categories of debt from the tally. The breach of the 55% threshold would trigger steps to balance the budget in subsequent years. Poland’s general government debt, as reported to the European Commission, is expected at 57% at the end of this year.

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  28. Dobyr tekst RAZ o platformie:
    Platforma wygrywa, demokracja przegrywa
    http://www.rp.pl/artykul/9157,733833-Ziemkiewicz--Platforma--czyli-PZPR-reaktywacja.html?p=1

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