09 listopada 2011

Humor dnia - BTP

Włoskie papiery skarbowe tracą gwałtownie na wartości. Wykres dla rentowności 10 latek wygląda tak:
Włoskie obligacje, zwane w skrócie BTP, doczekały się już nowej pełnej nazwy: Berlusconi Toilet Paper :) W między czasie Francuzi właśnie zdementowali plotkę jakoby prowadzili rozmowy z Niemcami na temat skurczenia strefy euro (French official denies a report that the EU were discussing a smaller Euro-zone). Biorąc pod uwagę ten nagłówek EU's Barroso says that Europe can go no further with the current treaty czy ten EU's Barroso says Germany's GDP could contract by 3%, lose 1mln jobs if Eurozone shrinks to a few core members można śmiało stwierdzić że należy wierzyć w wiadomości jedynie zdementowane. Przypominam również, że Włosi w rozszerzonym EFSF dają prawie 18% gwarancji (139 mld euro z 779 mld euro): Nic się nie dzieje, proszę się rozejść:

5 komentarzy:

  1. ważne co będzie w poniedziałek - następna aukcja średnio i długookresowych.

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  2. Cały przyszły tydzien jest kluczowy tj 14 i 17 listopada:
    https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-UO9ZOd0eEwk/Tq2sQG1INKI/AAAAAAAAEY4/dKrIPZ3xnAQ/s800/screenshot.png

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  3. Tym filmikiem to żeś mnie rozbawił :) Pasuje do sytuacji na 100% !!!

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  4. BIS-Italy can handle higher bond yields for some time
    3:00PM ET on Sunday Dec 11, 2011 by Thomson Reuters
    FRANKFURT, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Italy is not in danger of losing the ability to handle its government debt load in the near future, even if the costs of servicing its debt remain high, the Bank for International Settlements said on Sunday.

    The BIS, the central bank of central banks, also said in its quarterly review that euro zone banks are in a very tight spot and should deleverage without delay.

    Market turbulence "sparked concerns that a prolonged period of bond market turbulence could end in a self-fulfilling funding crisis in (Italy) the third largest bond market in the world," the BIS said.

    "Yet simple simulations ... suggest that Italy should be able to withstand elevated yields for some time, provided it retains access to the market. Given the relatively high average residual maturity of the Italian public debt (seven years), it would take a long time for elevated yields to translate into significant additional debt service costs."

    The BIS said that even if the yield curve observed on Nov. 9, when Italian 1-year debt yields topped 7 percent, persisted throughout next year, the additional yearly cost would amount to 0.95 percent of 2010 GDP.

    In a conference call with reporters, BIS economist Stephen Cecchetti highlighted problems facing euro zone banks.

    "Banks and other financial institutions in the euro area are in very difficult situation," he said, and added:

    "European banks have to find a way to deleverage. This is going to be painful, but postponing the deleveraging until market conditions improve will only make matters worse."

    Turning to British and U.S. asset purchase programmes, the BIS said that they had been effective in bringing government bond yields down.

    However, it also said that purchases "might be subject to diminishing returns as central banks hold a larger share of the sovereign debt", and that a sharp and persistent central bank balance sheet expansion may affect inflation expectations. (Reporting by Sakari Suoninen)
    https://research.tdwaterhouse.ca/research/public/Markets/NewsArticle/1314-L5E7N93PH-1

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  5. Italy Can Withstand Increase in Borrowing Costs for Few Years, BIS Says
    taly will be able to withstand an increase in borrowing costs for at least for a few years as its relatively long debt maturity helps mitigate the effects of record bond yields, the Bank for International Settlements said.
    The cost of servicing its debt would rise by just 0.95 percent of gross domestic product next year if 10-year yields stayed at the record 7.48 percent reached last month, the BIS said, citing its own calculations. The “worst-case scenario” would have to persist for three years for the additional costs to exceed 2 percent of output, the bank said.
    “Simple simulations of the debt-service costs of the Italian Treasury in different yield-curve scenarios suggests that Italy should be able to withstand elevated yields for some time, provided it retains access to the market,” the BIS said in its Quarterly Report published yesterday. “Given the relatively high average residual maturity of the Italian public debt, it would take a long time” for these yields to translate into “significant additional debt service costs.”
    The average maturity of Italian debt is seven years, according to the BIS. That compares with six years in Portugal and Germany and slightly longer than seven years in France.
    The Italian government bond market is the world’s third largest after Japan and the U.S., with 1.9 trillion euros ($2.54 trillion) in outstanding debt and 1.6 trillion euros in marketable securities, according to the BIS.
    Debt Repayment
    Italy’s debt-servicing costs will rise to 5.1 percent of GDP in 2012 from 4.2 percent this year, and climb to 5.6 percent in 2013 if 10-year bond yields remain near 7 percent, the employers’ lobby group Confindustria said this month.
    European leaders last week unveiled a blueprint for a fiscal accord they hope will deliver the region from the debt crisis that has entered its third year and threatened to spread to Italy and Spain. The Franco-German-led agreement, which provides tighter budget rules and an additional 200 billion euros ($267 billion) to the euro war chest, is part of an effort to reassure investors that leaders can master the crisis.
    The euro zone’s third-largest economy has to repay about 53 billion euros ($71 billion) in the first quarter alone from the region’s total maturing debt of 157 billion euros, according to UBS AG. It owes further 3.2 billion euros in interest payments based on the average five-year yield in the past three months.
    The yield on five-year Italian notes rose 13 basis points to 6.80 percent as of 9:18 a.m. London time while the 10-year yield advanced 14 basis points to 6.50 percent.
    Italy plans to raise 3 billion euros of five-year debt on Dec. 14. The country has met 96 percent of its financing requirements for this year, according to UBS.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-11/italy-can-endure-higher-borrowing-costs-for-few-years-bis-says.html

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