Pisałem dosyć nie dawno, iż w mojej opinii obecna RPP jest jedną z najgorszych lub wręcz najgorszą RPP w historii III RP (klik). W mass media i specjalizowanych serwisach zaczyna pojawiać się więcej tego typu opinii.
Z dzisiaj w Bloomberg: Aviva Joins Morgan Stanley Rebuking Central Bank: Poland Credit
Polish interest rates look increasingly hard to predict after policy makers reduced borrowing costs last week by the most in four years a month after they signaled cuts were coming to an end.
Governor Marek Belka and his nine-member Monetary Policy Council lowered rates by 50 basis points to a record low of 3.25 percent on March 6, saying inflation and economic growth prospects had weakened. None of the 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a reduction of more than 25 basis points after the rate panel’s rhetoric turned more hawkish since they began a cycle of cuts in November.
“We are unable to build a strategy on it because it seems most of its decisions are taken at random,” Maciej Karasinski, a fixed-income fund manager at Aviva PTE SA, which runs Poland’s second-largest pension fund with $19 billion in assets, said in an interview on March 11. “It would have been impossible to predict a 50 basis point cut.”
“It is unusual and confusing for an institution that struggles to find consensus within its MPC to suddenly switch to a bigger cut in such an unexpected manner,” Pasquale Diana, an analyst at Morgan Stanley (MS) in London, said in a report on March 8. “Usually, such bold decisions take place right at the start of easing cycles, not as we approach the end.”