06 kwietnia 2013

BRE Bank - No good news from Polish PMI

Z tygodniowe raportu BRE Banku informacje o polskim PMI, zatrudnieniu i perspektywach.

No good news from Polish PMI

In line with our expectations Polish PMI dropped in March by 0.9 pts to 48.0 pts signaling a continuation of deterioration in the industrial sector.

The fall in March was broad-based with all but one PMI’ components declining (only backlogs of work index increased slightly, but remained on the historically low level below 43 pts indicating only a bit slower but still historically fast contraction). Some information from the detailed data is worth mentioning.

Firstly, in all European PMI data the downtrend in new export orders is gaining pace (in Poland it was the fastest since November), which surely confirms our concerns about the timing (not to mention the scale) of global upturn[..]

Secondly, the rate of discounting in output prices accelerated to a series record (since 2003) with index reaching only 44.8 pts. Firms reported a must to offer discounts in order to remain competitive.[..] in medium term rather track trends, which additionally to the above qualitative conclusions supports our scenario of inflation downtrend in the months to come.

Thirdly, PMI points to the longest sequence of job shedding in over 3 years as the employment sub index declined for the seventh consecutive month in March. Simple model based on PMI suggests that we are now near the bottom of employment growth rate (see chart below) but the turning reflects mainly statistical effects not the change in net growth of the number of employees. [..]

Last but not least, yet more optimistically, one should notice that in March (and most probably also in April, which can be proved just by a quick glance outside the window) all the industrial data might be affected by the current weather anomaly (for the first time in 15 years March was colder than February) and therefore output drops should be treated with caution (it is possible that there will be some pent-up demand afterwards, corroborating our scenario of somewhat more dynamic rebound in H2)

We have stressed many times that quantitative reasoning based on the headline PMI is not reliable especially on monthly basis. Apart from the employment index, which works with 6 months lag and on smoother quarterly data.

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