19 września 2014

Trading-Room: tydzień 38 - wrzesień 2014

Raport analityków technicznych z 16.09.2014 (wtorek)

Analitycy wrócili z miesięcznego urlopu.

Pomimo, przebicia poprzednich szczytów na rynku amerykańskim, ich pogląd na rynek się nie zmienił. Szczyt. Wiele innych elementów jak dolarowa hossa do 2016 w mocy.

Silny dolar ma wiele konsekwencji, nie tylko dla euro

ale również surowców czy rynków wschodzących

4 komentarze:

  1. Dramat na srebrze. Konsekwencja dolara.

  2. Tutaj nadchodząca katastrofa pisana słonecznym patykiem:

    "[...] I am therefore looking for a minimum of 18% declines over a period of 2-8 weeks. I believe such waterfall selling will kick off once the technical price breaks noted above are made, and I expect precious metals at that point to accelerate in the opposite direction. However, history is not clear on which way gold mining shares should go at that point, as they may only take off after the waterfall declines, and precious metals could be held back to some degree by forced redemptions under cross-asset selling.[...]"

    [...]Not every day will be down, but the trend will be fairly unforgiving, with little chance for anyone to get out or in. The technical breaks should then trigger the panic selling and the devastation will be through by November.[...]

  3. Od bandy do bandy latają w tych stanach. A Europa jak ogon się miota :)
    Wczoraj +1%, dzisiaj -1%. Moja magiczna kula widzi duże spadki.

  4. PS. Znowu od słonecznika z przymrużeniem oka:

    Four trading sessions left in September. I stick with my call that we have peaked. The internals reveal a very weak picture behind yesterday’s rally in equities, whilst we have an associated brewing reversal across gold, Euro and USD. I believe the breakdown in small caps and junk bonds in September, together with the potent negative divergences in equities this month have secured the broad markets peak and that we will not extend to year-end. The latest solar and margin debt data add to this likelihood.

    In the very short term, yesterday’s rally broke the bearish momentum, setting up alternatives for how this week ends. Based on the deterioration covered above, it may be that yesterday’s bounce is quickly engulfed by the bears, to continue the downtrends, or it maybe that stocks can rally back up a little further and precious metals leak more before breaking (down/up respectively) in earnest. Either way, the next two weeks down into the full moon of October have great potential to trigger the true breakdown in equities and the squeeze in PMs.


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