01 lipca 2016

Nasilają się separatystyczne nastroje w Unii Europejskiej, notowania banków dołują

Właśnie wpadło. Austriacy to Austriacy powtórzą wybory u siebie. Pewnie dlatego ludzie nie musieli wychodzić z domu czy skandować haseł bo od tego mają niezawisłe sądy.....

Wracając, coraz więcej separatystycznych głosów w europie mamy i kolejne kraje po wielkiej Brytanii chcą podejść do swojego "exit".



Patrząc na ostatnie sondaże okazuje się że sprawa nie dotyczy tylko krajów południa ale jest systemowa.
źródło: za raportem Capital Economics

          źródło: za Eurasia grup

Popularność UE
źródło: Citibank

To co wg mnie łączy kraje niezadowolone ze zjednoczone europy to imigranci. W każdym z krajów niezadowolonych, również w Wielkiej Brytanii kluczem do zrozumienia niezadowolenia są imigranci. Mowa też o nas - Polakach. W UK i w USA (szczególnie jednak ten pierwszy) rośnie niezadowolenie z napływu ludzi.
źródło: business insider

Na tej kanwie gra też Trump i szereg innych osób. Mowa o większym zamknięciu granic, mowa o podbieraniu pracy rodowitym obywatelom danego kraju itd. Mowa w końcu o "polish vermin". Jadą zatem i po nas....

Tu grają w mojej ocenie podstawowe nastroje społeczne. Paradoksalnie po głosie Czechów (Prezydent Czech apeluje o referendum ws. dalszego członkostwa w UE i NATO) jesteśmy teraz najbardziej pro unijnym krajem w regionie (CEE czy również CSE). Zamiast grać na UK powinniśmy zagrać chłodno na Niemcy i Francję i prounijne podejście dosysając się do naszych głównych Partnerów handlowych. Na bok sentymenty, romantyzm i emocje. Niech wygra pragmatyzm. Obawiam się jednak że tego wyborcy PiS by nie znieśli......

Wracając, separatystyczne podejście nasila obawy o rozpad unii jako takiej. Czołowym elementem dołującym są banki. Kluczowy w obserwacji Euro Stoxx 600, który testuje właściwie dołki z paniki 2012 - tak tej paniki kiedy groził nam rozpad strefy euro....
źródło: własne


Sam indeks wyleciał ostro z trójkąta dołem:
źródło: własne

Można się już pewnie zastanawiać czy destrukcyjna 5 za nami, ale jakoś nie jestem taki pewien:
Bloomberg

Nie jestem taki pewien, bo jak strzeli to gigantyczne wsparcie to dopiero zacznie się panika. Takich wsparć nie dołuję się jednak od razu. Zatem bujanie góra dół, najpierw. 
źródło: za raportem UBS

Warto śledzić przy tym trzy kluczowe banki wskazane przez Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy jako systemowo najważniejsze. Mowa o Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank oraz HSBC (więcej: Deutsche Bank Poses Greatest Risk to Global Financial System, IMF Says)

Na koniec muszę podkreślić, że po BREXIT, gorzej zachowały się indeksy poza ameryką (!). To zgodne z tym co piszę od początku tego roku i powtórzę to teraz. US markets are the last and only game in town. W związku z NIRP (ujemne stopy) kapitał ucieka z japonii i europy. Decydenci (policy makers) niszczą właśnie świat finansów jaki znamy. Nie trzeba być inteligentną osobą by stwierdził, iż kapitał szuka zawsze lepszych stóp zwrotu. Na pewno nikt nie będzie siedział cały czas na ujemnych pozycjach. Dlatego też Ameryka lepiej się trzyma i będzie lepiej się trzymać. Ameryka ma też za sobą FED, który najbardziej kręci rynkami jako takimi.


Na koniec pytanie z serii Gwiezdnych Wojen. Skoro mamy coraz więcej separatystów to kto jest Darth Sidiusem a kto Lord Tyranus?

PS. Zapraszam do subskrypcji premium

27 komentarzy:

  1. Dossanie sie do NIemiec mialaoby by sens(choc byloby politycznie ciezko strawne)gdyby oni chcieli nas traktowac jak partnera a nie jak kolonie.Po coz robic z siebie kolonie jeszcze bardziej niz sie jest.Zreszta ja caly czas mowie ze na sam ale to samiutenki koniec tego kryzyu najgorzej wyjda na tym Niemcy i zdaje sie ze wraz z problemami Deutsche Banku ten koniec juz sie zbliza-dossysanie sie do bankruta to niezbyt dobry pomysl a jak do tego dodac zaszlosci historczne to calkiem odpada-lepiej czekac az za pare lat kapital,klienci i know-how zacznie uciekac z Deutchstanu-w branzy turystycznej to juz sie dzieje.

    Piotr34

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    1. Dobrze kombinujesz Piotr34
      Do kogo bys sie zatem dossał?

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  2. (...)Zamiast grać na UK powinniśmy zagrać chłodno na Niemcy i Francję i prounijne podejście dosysając się do naszych głównych Partnerów handlowych. Na bok sentymenty, romantyzm i emocje. Niech wygra pragmatyzm(...)

    Masz na myśli szaloną i nierealną teraz z wielu względów koncepcję wejścia Polski do strefy Euro ???

    gajger

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    1. @gajger
      Nie. Jestem przeciwny naszemu wejsciu do strefy euro na teraz i zlotka daje nam jeszcze szanse.

      Jak powstanie unia bankowa o inne prawdziwe chocki klocki w tym fiskalny budzet to tak. Teraz to samobojstwo i dozynanie nas jak grekow.

      Usuń
  3. No wlasnie
    Austriacy powtorzyli wybory a nasze samoradowe z PSL? To byl kabaret!

    Rzadko komentuje bo zawsze w biegu ale dzieki za bloga
    SzachMat

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  4. Italy eyes €40bn bank rescue as first Brexit domino falls
    Italy is preparing a €40bn rescue of its financial system as bank shares collapse on the Milan bourse and the powerful after-shocks of Brexit shake European markets.

    An Italian government task force is watching events hour by hour, pledging all steps necessary to ensure the stability of the banks. “Italy will do everything necessary to reassure people,” said premier Matteo Renzi.

    [..]
    Italian officials are studying a direct state recapitalisation of the banks, to be funded by a special bond issue. They also want a moratorium of so-called ‘bail-in’ rules and bondholder write-downs, but these steps are impossible under EU laws. Mr Renzi raised the subject urgently at a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande at a Brexit summit in Berlin on Monday.

    “There has to be a suspension of the bail-in rules and state aid rules at the highest political level in the EU, otherwise I don’t see how this can work,” said Mr Codogno.

    Unlike the eurozone debt crisis in 2011-2012, there is no serious trouble yet in the sovereign debt markets. The ECB is effectively capping yields under quantitative easing.
    [..]

    Italy’s banks are the Achilles Heel of the eurozone financial system. Non-performing loans have ratcheted up to 18pc of total balance sheets as a result the country’s slide into depression after the Lehman crisis.

    The new bail-in reform this year has brought matters to a head, catching EU authorities off guard. It was intended to protect taxpayers by ensuring that creditors suffer major losses first if a bank gets into trouble, but was badly designed and has led to a flight from bank shares. The Bank of Italy has called for a complete overhaul of the bail-in rules.

    It is now almost impossible for Italian banks to raise capital. They are caught in a pincer as the ECB simultaneously demands compliance with tougher capital adequacy buffers, in some case demanding fresh infusions of capital three or four times. Mr Codogno said the ECB is unwittingly destabilizing the banks in an overzealous attempt to make Europe’s banks safer.

    Italy is now paralyzed under the existing eurozone structure. Analysts say it desperately needs a US-style bank rescue along the lines of the ‘TARP’ in 2008, which used federal funds to mop up bad assets and stabilize the banks. This is forbidden by the eurozone.

    The government introduced a €5bn rescue fund called Atlante earlier this year, but this was funded largely by the banks themselves rather than the state and has been overwhelmed by events.

    Mr Codogno said Italy is caught in a low-growth trap that is slowly eroding debt dynamics. “I don’t think the Italian system is about to blow up. We could muddle through for years, but we need to get out of this loop,” he said.
    Hedge fund veteran George Soros warned that Italy faces the risk of a “full-blown banking crisis” that could bring the rebel Five Star Movement to power as early as next year.

    The banking squeeze has become politically explosive in Italy after thousands of small depositors were wiped out at four regional banks late last year. They were classified as junior bondholders, even though most of them were just ordinary savers who did not realize what was being done with their money.

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  5. Bravo TY...

    BREXIT TIME GAME...Look at Crises History Cards...

    http://atafinancialresearch.bblog.pl/wpis,brexit;time;game;look;at;crises;history;cards;,163544.html

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  6. Darth Sidius to Putin a Hrabią Duku jest Orban :D

    Trader101

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  7. Skoro jesteśmy przy gwiezdnych wojnach -> Armia klonów to... "uchodźcy". Niby jaki jest sens przyjmowania do Europy miliona imigrantów z których 90% to młodzi mężczyźni analfabeci, jak nie późniejsze ich wykorzystanie w charakterze mięsa armatniego.

    gajger

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  8. June 30 – Bloomberg (Aoife White): “Italy was given the go-ahead by the European Commission to supply as much as 150 billion euros ($166bn) in government liquidity guarantees for its struggling banks until the end of the year, according to an EU official. Liquidity support for solvent banks is a ‘precautionary measure’ requested by Italy, the EU said… The guarantees of senior debt allow lenders to maintain access to financing… ‘There is no expectation that the need to use this’ should arise, the commission said... Saddled with some 360 billion euros in soured loans and a sputtering economy, Italy’s lenders have been sliding toward the type of crisis that other European countries dealt with years ago.”

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  9. Kyle Bass Says China’s Corporate Bond Market Is ‘Freezing Up’
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-01/kyle-bass-says-china-s-corporate-bond-market-is-freezing-up

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  10. June 29 – Reuters (Francesco Guarascio): “Germany and the European Commission told Italy on Wednesday to follow the rules after Italy made preliminary plans to prop up its banks in the wake of volatility caused by Britain's vote to leave the European Union. Rome says it is concerned that Italian banks, which hold 360 billion euros ($400bn) of bad loans, a third of the euro zone's total, risk attack by hedge funds betting that market turmoil could tip them into full-blown crisis. Banking and government sources said Italy was preparing to protect its banking industry by requesting more flexibility from the EU on both public spending and state aid for its lenders. The Italian initiative did not go down well in Germany, the main contributor to the EU budget and a staunch supporter of fiscal discipline and strict rules. ‘On the banking union we established specific rules as far as the winding down of banks, the recapitalization of banks is concerned,’ German Chancellor Angela Merkel told a news conference… ‘We can't come up with new rules every two years,’ she said…”

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  11. June 29 – Financial Times (Rachel Sanderson): “An attempt by Matteo Renzi to use Brexit-driven market turmoil to secure EU approval for Italy’s plans to recapitalise its banks without triggering bail-in rules has been rebuffed by Germany and the European Central Bank. ‘We wrote the rules for the credit system, we cannot change them every two years,’ Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, said on Wednesday in her first public comments since the Italian prime minister floated his idea on Monday. Mr Renzi had sought to rally support from Ms Merkel and French leader François Hollande for a suspension of bail in rules to allow Italy to recapitalise its banking sector.”

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  12. June 30 – Bloomberg (Piotr Skolimowski): “The European Central Bank is considering loosening the rules for its bond purchases to ensure enough debt is available to buy in the aftermath of the Brexit vote… Policy makers are concerned that the pool of securities eligible for quantitative easing has shrunk after investors piled into the region’s safest assets and pushed down yields on some sovereign debt too far to meet current criteria, said the people, who asked not to be identified… Some Governing Council members now favor changing the allocation of bond purchases away from the size of a nation’s economy toward one more in line with outstanding debt… Such a move risks controversy because securities issued by highly leveraged governments such as Italy -- the world’s third-largest debtor after the U.S. and Japan -- would benefit.

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  13. July 1 – Reuters (Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa): “The European Central Bank is not currently considering buying government debt out of proportion to euro zone countries' shareholding in the bank and the hurdle for abandoning this capital key is high, sources close to the ECB said... Bond markets rallied on Friday after Bloomberg reported that the ECB was considering giving up the capital key due to a shortage of German paper, which investors see as safe and have piled into in the aftermath of Britain's vote to leave the European Union

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  14. June 30 – Bloomberg (Scott Hamilton): “Mark Carney signaled the Bank of England could cut interest rates within months as the central bank tries to shield an economy rattled by the shock of Brexit and the chaos engulfing Britain’s political classes. In his second televised address since the country voted to leave the European Union, the governor said… that officials won’t hesitate to act when it comes to safeguarding the economy or the resilience of the financial system. The BOE will also continue its liquidity auctions for banks on a weekly, rather than monthly, basis and consider a ‘host of other measures.’ The pound slumped…”

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  15. June 30 – Financial Times (Adam Samson): “The universe of negative-yielding government debt has increased by more than $1tn in the last month to reach a high of almost $12tn in one of the most tangible results of Britain’s decision to leave the EU. Record lows yields… have produced outsize returns for bondholders in some of the world’s largest, safest and most liquid securities.

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  16. June 26 – Reuters (Marc Jones): “Global economic policy urgently needs rebalancing, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said…, as the world faces a ‘risky trinity’ of high debt, low productivity growth and dwindling firepower at the world's big central banks. The BIS, an umbrella body for major central banks, said in its annual report that the global economy was highly exposed even before Thursday's vote by Britain to leave the European Union. ‘There are worrying developments, a sort of ‘risky trinity’, that bear watching,’ said the head of the BIS monetary and economic department, Claudio Borio. ‘Productivity growth that is unusually low, casting a shadow over future improvements in living standards; global debt levels that are historically high, raising financial stability risks; and room for policy maneuver that is remarkably narrow.’ He said the global economy cannot afford to rely any longer on the debt-fueled growth model that has brought it to the current juncture

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  17. June 26 – Bloomberg (Boris Groendahl): “Policy makers have to take tougher action to sever the link between banks and sovereigns that wreaked so much havoc during the last financial crisis, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The current regulatory treatment of government debt on banks’ balance sheets is ‘no longer tenable,’ the… lender said in its annual report… Financial crises are an immense cost to taxpayers, the BIS said… In advanced economies, the median increase in public debt was equivalent to 15% of economic output in the three years after the crisis. After the 2008 crisis, that debt increase was even bigger: In advanced economies, the median rise was 30% of output, and debt now stands at nearly 100%

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  18. June 30 – MarketWatch (Hans Bentzien): “Deutsche Bank AG is the riskiest financial institution in the world as a potential source of external shocks to the financial system, according to the International Monetary Fund. ‘Among the G-SIBs (globally systemically important banks), Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse,’ the IMF said in its Financial Sector Assessment Program. ‘In particular, Germany, France, the U.K. and the U.S. have the highest degree of outward spillovers as measured by the average percentage of capital loss of other banking systems due to banking sector shock in the source country,’ the IMF added. The importance of Deutsche Bank emphasizes the need for risk management, intense supervision and monitoring cross-border exposure as well as the ability of globally systemic banks to carry out new resolution regimes, IMF said.”

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  19. June 29 – Wall Street Journal (Josh Barbanel): “Manhattan apartment sales are tumbling, according to new market data, and several brokers said it is a sign that a significant correction is underway as buyers hold back. Sales in the second quarter were down more than 10% compared with the same quarter in 2015, the slowest pace since the recession year of 2009. Sales of co-ops fell by 26% and sales of lower priced apartments going for less than $1 million were down 20%... ‘I think it is a correction, a serious correction,’ said Hall F. Willkie, president of brokerage Brown Harris Stevens.”

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  20. June 29 – Bloomberg (Kyoungwha Kim): “The yuan’s worst quarterly performance on record is raising the risk of capital flight. China’s currency has slumped 2.9% since the end of March, the most since the nation unified the official and market rates at the start of 1994, to trade near its lowest level in five years. Losses deepened after the U.K.’s vote to secede from the European Union led to a jump in the dollar and dented the outlook for Chinese exports

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  21. June 30 – MarketWatch (Sue Chang): “Andy Xie isn’t known for tepid opinions. The provocative Xie, who was a top economist at the World Bank and Morgan Stanley, found notoriety a decade ago when he left the Wall Street bank after a controversial internal report went public. Today, he is among the loudest voices warning of an inevitable implosion in China… Xie, now working independently and based in Shanghai, says the coming collapse won’t be like the Asian currency crisis of 1997 or the U.S. financial meltdown of 2008. …Xie said China’s trajectory instead resembles the one that led to the Great Depression, when the expansion of credit, loose monetary policy and a widespread belief that asset prices would never fall contributed to rampant speculation that ended with a crippling market crash… ‘The government is allowing speculation by providing cheap financing…’ China ‘is riding a tiger and is terrified of a crash. So it keeps pumping cash into the economy. It is difficult to see how China can avoid a crisis.’”

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  22. June 25 – Reuters (Sumeet Chatterjee): “Years of breakneck growth for China's top insurers has been partly fueled by a splurge on risky investment products that could punch multi-billion-dollar holes in their balance sheets if the slowing economy triggers heavy debt defaults. Industry premiums have increased by an average 13.4% a year since 2010, according to the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC), but in an environment of low interest rates and unreliable stock markets, insurers have increasingly looked to alternative investments to make the returns they need to service their growing business. A Reuters survey of the accounts of the top five listed insurers… showed their holding of assets other than shares, bonds and cash had more than quadrupled in five years to 984 billion yuan ($150bn). These alternative investments - which include opaque, risky shadow banking-linked assets such as trust schemes and wealth management products (WMP) - account for roughly 16% of the top five's total assets, up from 5% in 2011…”

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  23. June 28 – Bloomberg (Anto Antony): “Risks to India’s banking industry have ‘sharply increased’ since September as surging bad loans drag lenders’ profitability to the lowest since at least 1999, according to the Reserve Bank of India. Banks’ return on assets fell to 0.4% at the end of March from 0.8% a year earlier… The industry’s gross bad-loan ratio jumped to a 13-year high of 7.6%... Under a ‘baseline stress scenario,’ that ratio may rise to 8.5% by next March, the deadline set by RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan for banks to clean up soured credit… ‘Given the higher level of balance-sheet impairment, banks may remain risk averse for some more time as their focus would be on strengthening’ those balance sheets, according to the report.”

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  24. June 30 – Reuters (Tim Kelly): “Chinese military activity is escalating in the East China Sea, Japan's top military commander said on Thursday, with Japanese emergency scrambles to counter Chinese jets almost doubling in the past three months. Japanese air force jet scrambled around 200 times in the three months ending on Thursday compared with 114 times in the year-earlier period…”

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