03 lutego 2018

Ameryka Saudyjska - początek 2018

Za chwilę świat zaleje ciekawy nagłówek.

Nigdy w historii USA nie produkowano tyle ropy.

Financial Times (Ed Crooks): “US oil production has returned to its record high point, 47 years after the previous peak during the final days of the last Texas oil boom, as the shale revolution that was temporarily set back by low crude prices has reignited. The government’s Energy Information Administration estimated… that US output was running at just under 10.04m barrels per day last November, fractionally below the previous record set in November 1970. Soaring output from shale wells has put the US on course to overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world’s largest crude producer, shaking up oil markets and the geopolitics of energy

I kilka wykresów 

Produkcja w USA

The petroleum trade deficit in the U.S. was 2.5 million barrels a day at the end of the year when looking across all types of petroleum liquids, including fuels such as gasoline and diesel, Rystad said. That is down sharply from a peak petroleum deficit of 12.5 million barrels a day in 2007.
Rystad expects that gap to keep shrinking because West Texas Intermediate oil is trading at a big discount to Brent, the global crude benchmark price. That allows U.S. refineries to run full tilt on cheaper crude close to home, while also making it economical to ship oil abroad.
The IEA predicted earlier this month that the U.S. is on pace pull ahead of Saudi Arabia, which last year produced just shy of 10 million barrels a day, and will vie with Russia, with output of 11 million barrels a day, to become the world’s top oil producer.
za WSJ: U.S. Oil Production Tops 10 Million Barrels A Day for First Time Since 1970.
Chiny importują wiecej rioy niż USA

Ameryka zabiera udziały OPEC

Nowa produkcja z łupków

Polecam dodatkowo: 

Exxon, Chevron Fall Short Despite Rising Prices - WSJ

America’s biggest oil companies post quarterly profits that miss expectations

Most of the gains stemmed from one-time benefits related to the tax changes approved by Congress and PDT.

Exxon said its production fell by about 130,000 barrels a day and its U.S. drilling business lost money for the 12th consecutive quarter, showing continued struggles in an area where the company is making a vast expansion. Exxon also reported a $1.3 billion write-down on its natural gas properties, the second year in a row it has had to recognize the declining value of certain prospects, something it rarely did before oil prices crashed in 2014.

Chevron was hit by falling profits in its California refining business, as well as charges related to hurricanes Harvey and Nate
The Exxon and Chevron results were in contrast to the companies’ big oil counterparts, whose executives have said that rising prices for oil, currently around $65 a barrel, have led them to expect 2018 to be the best year since crude sold for more than $100 a barrel.

Royal Dutch Shell PLC saw profits triple, nearing levels last seen before oil prices crashed in 2014. ConocoPhillips said net income was $1.6 billion, the highest quarterly profit in three years.
U.S. production in November came close to surpassing an all-time monthly record set in 1970 of more than 10 million barrels a day. The U.S. may soon surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia, according to the International Energy Agency.
Even as the biggest U.S. companies fell short of expectations, the sector is likely to generate more cash in 2018 than it did during some period of the boom era when oil sold for more than $100 a barrel, according to Simmons & Co. The amount of cash in excess of new spending and dividends could approach $40 billion in 2018, the most in more than a decade, according to the analysis.

2014, listopad - Wykres dnia - Całkowite załamanie ilości szybów wiertniczych
2014, październik: Wykres dnia - Ameryka Saudyjska

6 komentarzy:

  1. Zwała na rynku ropy równa się grubszy zjazd na MSCI WORLD?
    Zresztą tak tak było w 2009 roku, na wykresie WTI od 2014 roku można dstrzec ORGR, którego zasięg się realizuje właśnie. Ponadto mamy rekordowe pozycje spekulacyjne L, oraz w tle wybory w Rosji. Ciekawe co da ten mix.
    Tylko co domniemaną 5 falą na SPX? Może korekta ( fala 4 ) do jesieni...

    1. Ropy nie kupuję przy takich fundamentach i takim rekordowym pozycjonowaniu

      według mnie ropa bearish

  2. Co uważacie za przyczyne wzrostu produkcji USA? w FT podawano m.in. uniezaleznienie sie od importu co dało im możliwość nakładania sankcji na kraje eksportujące ropę.


    1. Nowe technologie. Nie było shale gas przeciez kiedys. pisałem o tym nie raz i nie dwa na tym blogu.

  3. US crude output set to rocket, says IEA
    America will become ‘undisputed global oil and gas leader for decades’

    Growth in US oil output until 2025 will be the strongest seen by any country in the history of crude markets, making it the “undisputed” leader among global producers, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.

    Technological advances that have enabled production from US shale oilfields to thrive will lead to growth of 8m barrels a day between 2010 and 2025, surpassing expansion rates enjoyed by any other nation.

    The US will become the undisputed global oil and gas leader for decades to come,” said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director. The country is expected to account for 80 per cent of the increase in global supply over the same period.

    US tight oil production, which includes crude, condensates and natural gas liquids (NGLs) will rise to 13m b/d by 2025, out of total US output of 16.9m b/d.

    “The growth in production is unprecedented, exceeding all historical records, even Saudi Arabia after production from the mega Ghawar field or Soviet gas production from the super Siberian fields,” Mr Birol said.

    Global energy needs will rise more slowly than in the past, according to the main scenario, in large part because of increased efficiency alongside a push towards cleaner fuels. But demand is expected to expand 30 per cent between today and 2040 — the equivalent of adding another China and India to today’s global demand.

    Much of this new demand will be met by renewable power, which will contribute to 40 per cent of the increase in primary energy demand to 2040. Renewables, led by wind and solar, will capture two-thirds of global investment in power plants as they become, for many countries, the cheapest source of new generating capacity, the IEA said.

    Solar will become the biggest source of “green” power by 2040, by which time the share of all renewables in global power generation will reach 40 per cent, led by China and India.

    Another theme in the report is the rapid growth in global demand for electricity in coming decades, driven by widening use of home appliances for the expanding middle classes in developing economies and the gradual electrification of transportation.


  4. Przez przypadek skasowalem kogoś wpis.

    ten ktoś twierdzil że kupki to mieszkanie i podal dwa linki




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