03 lutego 2018

Banki centralne, 2018 styczeń - monitoring

Pakiet zajawek z newsów za styczeń.

February 1 – Financial Times (Nicholas Megaw): “The European Central Bank may be forced to fight back if US leaders continue to prod currency markets to dent the strength of the dollar, one of the central bank’s most senior policymakers has warned. Currency markets gyrated last week after US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin declared that the White House would welcome a weaker dollar… In an interview…, ECB boardmember Benoît Cœuré echoed earlier calls from ECB president Mario Draghi to ‘keep to what we’ve agreed in the relevant fora, which is we’re not targeting exchange rates’. However, he added that the central bank could be forced to respond if a repeat performance from the US starts to affect the ECB’s chances of meeting its inflation target.”

January 28 – Bloomberg (Wout Vergauwen, Ruben Munsterman and Jana Randow): “The European Central Bank has to end its quantitative easing as soon as possible, according to ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot, who said there’s not a single reason anymore to continue with the program. ‘The program has done what could realistically be expected of it,’ Knot, who also heads the Dutch Central Bank, said…”

January 29 – Bloomberg (Alessandro Speciale and Jana Randow): “European Central Bank policy makers are sticking to the assumption that their bond-buying program will be wound down over about three months rather than brought to a sudden halt… Even the more-hawkish members of the Governing Council, who are pushing for policy language that would signal the end of crisis-era stimulus measures, endorse a gradual slowing of asset purchases after the latest extension concludes in September, the officials said, citing informal discussions.”

February 1 – Nikkei Asian Review (Tatsuya Goto): “The Bank of Japan is starting to face skeptics within its own ranks who question the sustainability of massive monetary easing and point to its potential side effects as the economy continues on a recovery path. Following a two-day policy meeting…, BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said there was only a ‘very limited debate’ on the possibility of tapering monetary easing. But according to a summary of opinions voiced during the meeting, at least two board members argued for a change to the BOJ's approach. It ‘may be necessary to consider what the desirable policy conduct would be going forward,’ one member said. The discussion also touched on re-examining the bank's interest rate targets and exchange-traded fund purchases -- a more extensive debate than the BOJ chief is willing to admit.”

January 30 – Bloomberg (Chikako Mogi and Chikafumi Hodo): “The Bank of Japan increased the amount of bonds it offered to buy at a regular operation for the first time since July, helping to bring down yields and weaken the yen. The BOJ sought to buy 330 billion yen ($3bn) of 3-to-5 year debt, more than the 300 billion yen at the last operation… The Japanese central bank is acting amid a global bond rout that is challenging its yield-curve control policy. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told lawmakers… that the central bank will continue easing to reach its 2% inflation target.”

January 30 – Reuters (Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto): “The Bank of Japan ramped up efforts to dispel market speculation of an early withdrawal of its massive stimulus, boosting its bond buying plan on Wednesday and reassuring markets that monetary policy will remain ultra-loose given meager inflation. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his deputy Kikuo Iwata… stressed the bank will maintain ‘powerful’ easing with inflation far from its 2% target. Iwata blamed market misunderstanding of BOJ policy for driving up the yen more than he expected, saying investors were wrong to assume the central bank will soon raise rates.”

January 25 – Reuters (Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa): “European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi took a swipe at Washington on Thursday for talking down the dollar, a move he said threatened a decades-old pact not to target the currency and might force his bank to change its own policy. Singling out the euro’s surge as a source of uncertainty, Draghi said any unjustified move could force the ECB to rethink its strategy as a strong currency could put a lid on inflation, thwarting its efforts to lift prices.”

January 25 – Bloomberg (Carolynn Look): “Mario Draghi expressed conviction that euro-area inflation will pick up, pushing the euro even higher despite his warning that the exchange rate is a renewed concern. The European Central Bank president said the strengthening economy justifies some currency appreciation, while reviving a warning on volatility that hasn’t been used since September… Improving economic momentum has ‘strengthened further our confidence that inflation will converge to close to but below 2%,” the European Central Bank president told reporters…, adding that domestic price pressures remain muted. ‘Against this background, recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring with regard to its possible implications for the medium term outlook of price stability.’”

January 21 – Financial Times (Jim Brunsden, Claire Jones and Arthur Beesley): “Euro area governments will kick off the process on Monday of finding a successor to Vítor Constâncio as vice-president of the European Central Bank with Spain well placed to secure the role for its economy minister Luis de Guindos. The opening of nominations for the new vice-president will be the first move in a complex chess game of ECB appointments with two-thirds of the central bank’s six-member executive board set to depart during the next two years. This includes the bank’s president, Mario Draghi, whose term ends in October 2019. A complex set of political and other considerations will underlie the appointments process — including the unwritten rule that the currency bloc’s biggest countries should always have a seat, and the need for better gender balance at the highest levels of ECB decision-making.”

January 16 – Bloomberg (Piotr Skolimowski): “The European Central Bank should adjust its policy guidance before the summer and shouldn’t have any problems ending net asset purchases in one swoop after September, Governing Council member Ardo Hansson said… While the Estonian policy maker judged the ECB’s current stance as broadly appropriate, he argued… that there was a ‘need for action in our communication.’ ‘There are certainly good reasons to reduce the importance of the net purchases in our communication soon -- also with a view to a potential end to these purchases,’ he said. If growth and inflation continue to evolve broadly in line with the ECB’s latest projection, it would ‘certainly be conceivable and also appropriate to end the purchases after September,’ he said.”

January 16 – Bloomberg (Jana Randow): “Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said that analysts’ expectations that European Central Bank interest rates won’t rise before the middle of next year are reasonable. ‘Those expectations seem to be grosso modo in line with the current forward guidance of the ECB Governing Council, which says that interest rates will only increase well beyond the end of net asset purchases,’ he said…”

January 17 – Bloomberg (Piotr Skolimowski and Alessandro Speciale): “The European Central Bank’s second-highest official waded into the debate over euro-area monetary stimulus after some policy makers expressed concerns over the single currency’s recent gains. Vice President Vitor Constancio cast his lot with Governing Council members Francois Villeroy de Galhau and Ewald Nowotny, who argued over the past two days that a stronger euro may harm ECB efforts to return inflation to the goal of just under 2%.”

January 14 – Reuters (Leika Kihara and Stanley White): “Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda offered a positive view on the economy and inflation…, sending the yen to a four-month high against the dollar on simmering speculation it may exit its ultra-loose monetary policy earlier than expected. Financial markets ignored Kuroda’s reminder that the BOJ will maintain its massive stimulus in a sign of how nervous investors have become on when it might follow the footsteps of other central banks in dialing back crisis-mode stimulus.”

January 17 – Reuters (Balazs Koranyi and Jan Strupczewski): “Euro zone officials could pick a new European Central Bank vice president within weeks, kicking off two years of flux at the top of one of Europe’s most vital institutions and previewing a tussle to replace ECB chief Mario Draghi in 2019. Germany is seen as eager to claim the presidency at last, two decades after the ECB’s creation, but the hawkish views of its obvious candidate, Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann, will count against him in some member states, euro zone sources say.”

January 14 – Reuters (John Revill and Angelika Gruber): “Three years after the Swiss National Bank shocked currency markets by scrapping the franc’s peg to the euro, it faces the toughest task of any major central bank in normalising ultra-loose monetary policy. If it raises rates, the Swiss franc strengthens. If it sells off its massive balance sheet, the Swiss franc strengthens. If a global crisis hits, the Swiss franc strengthens. And the abrupt decision to scrap the currency peg on Jan. 15, 2015, means it still has credibility issues with financial markets.”

January 19 – Bloomberg (Masaki Kondo): “Investors in Australia’s bonds are boosting bets the central bank will join its global peers in shifting toward a more hawkish policy stance. The extra yield on the nation’s benchmark three-year bonds over the central bank’s overnight cash rate jumped to 75 bps Friday, the widest since May 2010. Retail sales and employment both grew at more than twice the pace economists predicted, according to the latest data published this month.”

January 10 – Bloomberg (Alessandro Speciale): “As the European Central Bank enters 2018, the debate over its stimulus plans is being dominated by policy makers warning against keeping policy ultra-loose for too long. With the euro-area economy expanding solidly after three years of negative interest rates and quantitative easing, hawks such as Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann have stepped up calls for a definite end-date to bond purchases. Even Executive Board member Benoit Coeure, a leading proponent of QE when the region faced deflation, now sees a ‘reasonable chance’ the latest extension of the program to September will be the last. The key though is whether President Mario Draghi and doves such as chief economist Peter Praet also adjust their positions. They’ve stayed quiet this year…”

January 11 – Bloomberg (Alessandro Speciale): “European Central Bank policy makers said they’re open to tweaking their policy guidance soon to align it with a strengthening economy, spurring a rise in the euro as traders bet bond-buying will end in September. In the account of its December meeting, the Governing Council said there was a ‘widely shared’ view among officials that communication would need to evolve gradually based on the outlook for growth and inflation. But the language on the monetary-policy stance could be revisited early this year.”

January 9 – Bloomberg (Katherine Greifeld, Robert Fullem, and Liz McCormick): “Dollar bears take heed: Asian central banks may be putting the brakes on the greenback’s slide. After working for three years to staunch the yuan’s slump, China is now moving to combat the opposite problem. The People’s Bank of China has stopped using a component of its daily fixing formula that had been widely interpreted as a tool to support the currency… The yuan sank on the news. Meanwhile, South Korea’s government has been warning about the ascent in the won, Asia’s best-performing currency in 2017. And Taiwan’s central bank also sought to curb gains in its dollar. With emerging-market currencies adding to last year’s rally, Asia’s exporting nations are fretting about the repercussions for their economies.”

January 2 – Reuters (Francesco Canepa): “The European Central Bank may end its stimulus program this year if the euro zone economy continues to grow strongly, ECB rate-setter Ewald Nowotny told a German newspaper. The ECB has said it will buy bonds at least until September and it is widely expected to wind down the 2.55 trillion-euro scheme, the centerpiece of its efforts to revive inflation in the euro zone, after that. Nowotny’s comments, echoing those of board member Benoit Coeure at the weekend, are likely to help cement those expectations. ‘If the economy continues to do so well, we could let the program run out in 2018,’ Nowotny told Sueddeutsche Zeitung…”

January 3 – Reuters (Yoshifumi Takemoto): “Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said… the central bank would ‘patiently’ maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy to beat deflation. ‘Unlike snow, Japan’s deflationary mindset won’t melt easily,’ Kuroda said in a speech at a gathering of bank executives.”

January 2 – Bloomberg (Katia Dmitrieva): “The European Central Bank is heading for a two-year leadership overhaul that peaks with the selection of a successor to President Mario Draghi, and it will be politics as much as ability that determines who get the jobs. Five of the ECB’s seven top posts will be vacated by the end of 2019, starting with Vice President Vitor Constancio this June. Among the criteria candidates should bear in mind: being a woman is a plus, and appointing a government minister would break with tradition… ‘A big game of musical chairs is going to play out over the next two years as a lot of high-profile positions come up for grabs in the European Union,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING-Diba AG… What will emerge at the end of this process will have profound consequences for how the ECB goes about tightening its policy.’”

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