03 lutego 2018

Chiny, 2018 styczeń - monitoring

Pakiet zajawek z newsów za styczeń.



January 31 – Bloomberg: “China’s banking regulator has told lenders in Shanghai to increase their scrutiny of loans for mergers and acquisitions to ensure the funds aren’t used to buy land… A significant portion of M&A loans in Shanghai have been used for deals involving land as the main underlying asset, the China Banking Regulatory Commission’s Shanghai branch said in a notice issued in recent days… The regulator requested banks to strictly comply with current policies on M&A loans and other real estate lending policies. The directive marks the latest move in China’s crackdown on risks in the $38 trillion banking industry and its campaign to reduce the flow of money into riskier areas such as real estate. Authorities stepped up restrictions on lenders’ entrusted loans business last month, plugging a loophole in shadow financing to the property sector, after last year tightening the sources of home loans.”

January 28 – Financial Times (Emma Dunkley and Gabriel Wildau): “China’s $4tn bond market faces a refinancing challenge over the next five years as more than half of the outstanding debt matures, heightening concerns over default risk by some borrowers. Companies, state-owned enterprises, financial institutions and sovereign borrowers… have $409bn of onshore and offshore bonds maturing in 2018, followed by $619bn in 2019 and $664bn in 2020, according… Dealogic. The $2.7tn in maturing debt represents more than half the total amount of China’s $4tn in outstanding bond issuance, including perpetual bonds. A test for many borrowers is that new debt will be more expensive given a higher interest rate environment.”

January 28 – Reuters (Stella Qiu and Ryan Woo): “China’s economic growth will likely slow to 6.5-6.8% this year, a senior official at the country’s top economic planner wrote in the Beijing Daily…, while warning about the risks of ‘Black Swan’ and ‘Gray Rhino’ events. Black swans, or unforeseen occurrences, and gray rhinos, or highly obvious yet ignored threats, are likely to occur this year with adverse consequences, Fan Hengshan, vice secretary general of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), wrote in a commentary in the state-controlled newspaper.”

January 29 – Bloomberg: “The crisis surrounding HNA Group Co. deepened after it emerged that the Chinese company’s ability to repay its debt will face a potential shortfall of at least 15 billion yuan ($2.4bn) in the first quarter. The sprawling conglomerate warned major creditors about its financial status in a meeting in Hainan last week, though it also said that the pressure will probably ease in the second quarter as the group steps up asset disposals…”

January 30 – Bloomberg: “China’s Great Fire Sale looks set to take off. HNA Group Co., the indebted Chinese aviation-to-hotels conglomerate, told creditors it will seek to sell about 100 billion yuan ($16bn) in assets in the first half of the year to repay debts and stave off a liquidity crunch… Under the proposal, about 80% of that would be executed in the second quarter… The move is the latest in a steady drumbeat of news signaling the urgency of HNA’s liquidity situation. It also shows how after spending tens of billions of dollars gobbling up large stakes in everything from Deutsche Bank AG to Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., the company that once symbolized the country’s seemingly insatiable appetite for overseas assets is reversing course as China clamps down on what it describes as ‘irrational’ investments.”

January 31 – Reuters (Stella Qiu and Ryan Woo): “China’s manufacturing sector sustained growth at multi-month highs in January, a private business survey showed…, as factories continued to raise output to meet new orders, suggesting resilience in the world’s second-largest economy.”

January 29 – Bloomberg: “Three quarters of companies surveyed by the American Chamber of Commerce in China say they feel increasingly unwelcome, reflecting perceptions foreign firms aren’t treated equally to domestic competitors. The disparity in some cases comes from uneven enforcement of the law, which some firms say has become a version of protectionism, according to a survey released Tuesday. Protectionism is one of the top challenges, along with rising labor costs and supply of skilled workers, even as an increasing share of firms report rising revenues, according to responses from more than 400 companies…”

January 22 – Bloomberg (Keith Bradsher): “China has tried just about everything to tame a property market in which home prices sometimes jump around like the value of Bitcoin. Over the years, in one city or another, it has limited mortgage lending. It has tried to halt purchases of homes by people who already own one. It has plowed billions of dollars into building new homes that regular Chinese people can afford. Now the Chinese government is considering adopting something that, while familiar to homeowners in the United States and elsewhere… a property tax. Living in a place without property taxes may sound appealing, but a growing number of experts and policymakers in China say the absence of one has helped destabilize a vast and crucial part of the Chinese economy. Many investors snap up homes — in China, they are mostly apartments — hoping to ride a price surge. In the biggest cities, property prices on average have at least doubled over the past eight years. But vast numbers of apartments in many cities lie empty, either because the buyers have no intention of moving in or renting out, or because speculators built homes that nobody wants.”

January 23 – Bloomberg: “Strains are spreading in China’s $15 trillion shadow banking industry as investors pull back from the debt-like savings products that helped drive leverage to dangerous levels. Most affected are some $3.8 trillion of so-called trust products, until now the fastest-growing shadow banking segment and a popular way for debt-ridden property developers and local governments to raise funds from millions of ordinary Chinese. In recent weeks, at least two of the products have been forced to delay payments as the market started to freeze up, making it harder to refinance maturing issues with new ones. ‘On the one hand you have cash-strapped borrowers scrambling for refinancing; on the other you have cash-rich investors not knowing where to put their money for fear of getting burned,’ said James Yang, a sales manager at Shanghai Xiangyi Asset Management Co.”

January 23 – Bloomberg (Lianting Tu): “Struggling Chinese conglomerate HNA Group Co. faces rising bond maturities later this year even if it’s able to navigate current difficulties in repaying debt to banks. HNA is under mounting pressure as several banks are said to have frozen some unused credit lines to its units after missed payments. That follows a $40-billion-plus buying spree that saw the conglomerate emerge from obscurity to take large stakes in companies including Deutsche Bank AG and Hilton Worldwide… The bill on maturing offshore and onshore notes for the group and its units will swell to more than 12 billion yuan ($1.88bn) in both the third and fourth quarters, from 1 billion yuan this quarter…”

January 24 – New York Times (Keith Bradsher): “A reclusive and influential senior adviser to President Xi Jinping of China emerged… with a public message that many in the financial world have been eager to hear: The country has a timetable for curbing its vast appetite for debt. Speaking to attendees at the World Economic Forum, the adviser, Liu He, said that the Chinese government planned to bring its debt under control within three years. Mr. Liu said Beijing intended to focus on reining in the growth of debt among local governments and companies. ‘We have full confidence and a clear plan to get the job done,’ he said. Mr. Liu did not offer details of the government’s plans…”

January 21 – Bloomberg (Prudence Ho): “Shares of HNA Group Co. units fell in Shanghai and Shenzhen trading after more of the conglomerate’s subsidiaries halted their stock from trading, pending ‘major’ announcements. Hainan HNA Infrastructure Investment Group Co. fell by the 10% daily limit…, while HNA Innovation Co. slumped more than 9%. HNA Investment Group Co. sank as much as 5.4%. Four HNA units -- HNA-Caissa Travel Group Co., Bohai Capital Holding Co., Tianjin Tianhai Investment Co. and flagship Hainan Airlines Holding Co. -- suspended their shares from trading this month ahead of unspecified announcements.”

January 24 – Bloomberg: “Just as the U.S. throws up new barriers to cross-border commerce, its largest trading partner China is redoubling its efforts to seal free-trade agreements. From deals with blocs including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to bilaterals with tiny countries like Maldives, China’s FTAs already cover 21 countries. That compares with the 20 countries covered by U.S. agreements. More than a dozen additional pacts are being negotiated or studied... While President Donald Trump this week imposed tariffs…, underscoring his America first outlook, China is hoping for a ‘bumper year’ for new trade deals, according to the Commerce Ministry.”

January 18 – New York Times (Keith Bradsher): “The pace of growth in China’s economy accelerated last year for the first time in seven years as exports, construction and consumer spending all climbed strongly. At least, that’s what the government says. In reality, the pace of growth in China’s economy is anybody’s guess. Various signals suggest China’s growth did speed up last year, which could give the government the room it needs to tackle an accumulation of serious financial, environmental and social problems this year… The National Bureau of Statistics announced… that the economy expanded 6.9% last year, up slightly from 6.7% in 2016 and breaking a trend of gradual slowing that began in 2011.”

January 18 – Bloomberg: “China home prices rose in the most cities in six months even as the government prolonged its campaign to curb property speculation. New-home prices… in December rose in 57 of 70 cities tracked by the government, compared with 50 in November… Prices fell in 7 cities from the previous month and were unchanged in six.”

January 14 – Reuters (Michael Martina): “China will step up oversight in the banking sector this year to reduce financial risks, the country’s banking regulator said, stressing that long-term efforts would be needed to control banking sector chaos. The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) said… that its priorities included increasing supervision over shadow banking and interbank activities. ‘Banking shareholder management, corporate governance and risk control mechanisms are still relatively weak, and root causes creating market chaos have not fundamentally changed,’ the CBRC said.”

January 17 – Bloomberg: “A slump in Chinese government debt may worsen, with inflation picking up as breweries, dairies and others raise prices, and energy costs climb amid a government crackdown on coal. Cui Li, Hong Kong-based head of macro research at CCB International Holdings Ltd., expects inflation to rise to 2.5% this year, a marked increase from 2017 when China’s consumer price index averaged 1.6%. ‘Food prices will rise, raw material costs are passing through, and pollution curbs have intensified -- I don’t think the market has yet fully priced in the impact of inflation,’ said Cui. She expects China’s 10-year government bond yield to range between 4.3 and 4.5% by the end of the year versus 3.97% Thursday.”

January 16 – Bloomberg: “China’s central bank boosted injections via open-market operations to the most in two months to counter seasonal tightening of liquidity. The People’s Bank of China pumped in a net 270 billion yuan ($42bn) on Tuesday, as sales of reverse-repurchase agreements more than offset maturities. That’s the most since Nov. 16…”

January 17 – Wall Street Journal (Nathaniel Taplin): “Why did sentiment on China improve so much in 2017? Progress in taming long-running structural problems, such as the country’s excess manufacturing capacity and mushrooming off-balance sheet debt, deservedly caught investors’ attention. The driving force behind that progress was the same factor that should now give investors pause: The primacy of Xi Jinping. Mr. Xi’s five-year campaign to consolidate power has left him in firm control of China’s fractious bureaucracy. He has started to do what his predecessors couldn’t, bringing slippery local officials and state-owned banks and firms to heel. But his success entails a sea-change in how to view China: The biggest risk may no longer be a weak Beijing, but a strong Xi administration which local officials are terrified to defy. That brings up ghosts of a darker time.”

January 18 – Bloomberg (Denise Wee): “It’s been a bad week for bonds of the debt-laden Chinese conglomerate HNA Group Co., with stock trading halts at four units adding to investor concerns. One of the securities sold by HNA Group International Co. that matures in 2019 slid as much as 4.2 cents this week -- the biggest weekly fall in six months -- to a record low of 84 cents on the dollar. The company’s bonds due 2021 shed 3.3 cents this week to 79.5 cents, also near the lowest ever.”

January 18 – Bloomberg: “A local state-owned company in China’s Inner Mongolia, a region that recently admitted having inflated key economic data, has suffered a credit rating downgrade. Fitch Ratings cut Inner Mongolia High-Grade Highway Construction and Development Co.’s long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default rating to BBB- from BBB, citing the local government’s revision of its fiscal figures… That follows its downgrade of an internal assessment of the creditworthiness of the Inner Mongolia region… Investors are growing more concerned about local credit risks as the government steps up efforts to curb leverage and two regions have admitted faking data.”

January 15 – Bloomberg: “China is escalating its clampdown on cryptocurrency trading, targeting online platforms and mobile apps that offer exchange-like services… While authorities banned cryptocurrency exchanges last year, they’ve recently noted an uptick in activity on alternative venues. The government plans to block domestic access to homegrown and offshore platforms that enable centralized trading, the people said… Authorities will also target individuals and companies that provide market-making, settlement and clearing services for centralized trading…”

January 16 – Financial Times (Yuan Yang, Lucy Hornby and Emily Feng): “China is plugging the last holes in its ‘Great Firewall’ internet censorship apparatus, hampering global groups’ ability to operate in the country. Five international companies and organisations told the Financial Times that access to the global internet from their Chinese offices has been disrupted in recent months. Some of the companies blamed Chinese telecoms providers, saying the groups blocked crucial software used to bypass censorship. China aggressively censors the internet, cutting off locals’ access to Facebook, Google, YouTube and much more, to control what news and facts reach its population.”

January 7 – Bloomberg (Alfred Liu): “China took another step to clamp down on leverage in the financial system, ordering banks to ensure they aren’t exposed to risks from their entrusted loan business. Banks can only act as intermediaries when arranging entrusted loans, and must not provide guarantees or get involved in decision-making, according to new rules… on the China Banking Regulatory Commission’s website… The CBRC’s measure is the latest attempt by China to curb the threat that excessive leverage in the financial system poses to the nation’s economy. President Xi Jinping and his senior economic officials have vowed to make controlling financial risks a top priority…”

January 9 – Bloomberg: “As the end of People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan’s term approaches, a firmer yuan and calm markets are providing a window to get some of his long-term reforms back on track. The latest news in the two-steps forward, one-step back move to a more freely traded currency came Tuesday, as Bloomberg reported the central bank has tweaked its management of the daily currency fixing, removing a hurdle to the influence of market forces. PBOC adviser Huang Yiping says that shows authorities’ desire to further liberalize the exchange rate.”

January 8 – Bloomberg: “After selling billions of dollars of debt backed by consumer loans last year, Chinese billionaire Jack Ma’s Ant Financial is pausing such fundraising as the government steps up curbs on micro lending. The company hasn’t sold any asset-backed securities since early December… That marks an abrupt shift after it issued a record 238 billion yuan ($37bn) in 2017 of such securities backed by consumer loans.”

January 6 – Reuters (Josephine Mason, Meng Meng and Cheng Fang): “China’s foreign exchange reserves rose to their highest in more than a year in December, blowing past economists’ estimates, as tight regulations and a strong yuan continued to discourage capital outflows… Notching up their 11th straight month of gains, reserves rose $20.2 billion in December to $3.14 trillion, the highest since September 2016 and the biggest monthly increase since July.”

January 7 – Financial Times (Hudson Lockett): “Researchers at China’s central bank have agreed that higher interest rates could be appropriate in the near future thanks to improvements in industrial prices and enterprise profitability, according to state media. State-run newspaper China Daily said… that top researchers at the People’s Bank of China had recently agreed that higher rates would ‘help to squeeze asset bubbles and restrain debt expansion, as a tool to be used with broader oversight of financial activities.’”

January 1 – Bloomberg: “China’s economy begins 2018 facing what its own leaders call three years of ‘critical battles.’ Those fights to tackle domestic debt, poverty and pollution pose a hat-trick of risks to the world’s No. 2 economy even before higher interest rates and trade war threats from the U.S. are taken into account. While the nation is starting from a position of strength, with full-year growth in 2017 poised for its first acceleration since 2010… As a result, the government of Xi Jinping is signaling that it’s sanguine about more modest economic performance, if progress on the top risk -- financial fragility -- can be made… ‘Significant economic imbalances continue to create downside risk to the outlook for 2018,’ said Rajiv Biswas, chief Asia-Pacific economist at IHS Markit… ‘Risks to the Chinese economy will remain among the key risks to the global growth outlook in 2018, with the Asia Pacific region particularly vulnerable to the shock waves from a slowdown.’”

December 31 – Bloomberg (Sungwoo Park): “China, the world’s biggest oil buyer, is on the verge of opening a domestic market to trade futures contracts. It’s been planning one for years, only to encounter delays. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange, a unit of Shanghai Futures Exchange, will be known by the acronym INE and will allow Chinese buyers to lock in oil prices and pay in local currency. Also, foreign traders will be allowed to invest -- a first for China’s commodities markets -- because the exchange is registered in Shanghai’s free trade zone. There are implications for the U.S. dollar’s well-established role as the global currency of the oil market.”

December 30 – Bloomberg: “China’s official factory gauge maintained momentum, signaling campaigns to reduce both pollution and debt risk haven’t curbed output. The manufacturing purchasing managers index edged down to 51.6 in December, in line with the forecast… The non-manufacturing PMI stood at 55, compared with a projected 54.7 reading and 54.8 in November…”

January 2 – Bloomberg: “China’s money market rates are set to grind higher and a bear market in bonds will worsen before it gets better, according to a survey of strategists and traders. The seven-day repurchase rate will average 2.99% in 2018, up from 2.88% in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The yield on 10-year government debt is projected to rise as high as 4.20% before ending the year at 3.75%. The yield was little changed at 3.93% on Wednesday. China’s sovereign bonds have fallen for five quarters, the longest losing streak since Bloomberg started to compile the data in 2005, as the government stepped up a campaign to cut leverage in the financial sector and inflation picked up. The 10-year yield rose last year by the most since 2013.”

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