24 lutego 2018

ECB QE - kilka wykresów o nikłej skuteczności

Na bazie wpisu: This European Scam Will Make Our "Super Crash" Much Worse, Lee Adlera.

There's every indication that liquidity in the European system has not grown as a result of NIRP (negative-interest-rate policy) and QE (quantitative easing) and that it will only get worse now that the ECB has drastically cut its asset purchases.
The result is that bank assets and deposits don't grow, leaving the ECB flummoxed as to why their insane policy isn't working. So they just pretend that it's working, but begin to gradually dismantle it.

The ECB's trillions in asset purchases have done nothing to stimulate lending or growth. Most of the money the ECB printed to buy those assets has been vaporized as banks and investment institutions deleveraged their balance sheets by selling assets and using the proceeds to pay off debts that were other banks' loans.
Meanwhile, the ECB established a trick program called the targeted long-term lending operations (TLTRO) that gave the appearance that bank assets did grow now and then. But it's a sham. The idea was that the ECB would lend money to the banks and pay them a bonus if they increased their lending to customers.
But there was no intrinsic loan demand in Europe. So what did the banks do? They lent the money to each other in a shell game, so that they could collect the interest bonus. Now it appears that they are beginning to unwind that scam

Business loans to nonfinancial corporations (NFCs) – similar to the commercial and industrial loans stat for U.S. banks – are dead in the water. They are up less than 0.2% year to year, and just 0.5% since the beginning of NIRP. This is what Mario Draghi calls progress. Total loans to NFCs are still in the range that they were in during the year before the ECB started NIRP in 2014. If NIRP and QE and TLTRO were meant to stimulate business borrowing… FAIL.

Interbank lending fell sharply in December after making a new high in November, almost equaling the 2008 peak. Need I remind you what happened in 2008? The annual growth rate in interbank loans is now 10.7%. Without these interbank games, total loan growth would have been virtually nil over the past year.
The banks resumed lending to each other in March 2017, collecting their LTRO bonus from the ECB in the process. The drop in December could be the unwinding of those loans.
Nonfinancial corporate deposits are growing rapidly, indicating either that business is growing or that European businesses are repatriating their cash from the U.S. and elsewhere.
But strong business revenue is no reason to be bullish. Strengthening European business will only encourage the ECB to finally pull the punchbowl and end QE altogether.[..]
The end of ECB asset purchases is coming. And that is unequivocally bearish.
Another trend that will encourage the ECB to end QE is that household borrowing is going parabolic. Household debt to banks is growing at an accelerating rate, now at a 3.4% annual rate. That's up from 2.9% in November and 1.9% a year ago. The fact that consumers are adding to debt while business and institutions are shedding debt is a sign that the dumb money is levering up, just when the smart money is deleveraging.

In fact, it is actually a sign of a housing bubble. Mortgage lending rose 167.7 billion euros (4.1%) in the past 12 months. That accounted for 90% of the rise in household borrowing. It was also nearly double the annual increase in December 2016. Housing bubble anyone?
Here's another interesting factoid. Mortgages outstanding rose by roughly 400 billion euros since 2014. Over the same period, European bank deposits, excluding TLTRO related balances, rose by approximately 800 billion euros. The rise in the proceeds of mortgage loans accounted for half of the increase in deposits. The rest came from the ECB's QE purchases. There was no intrinsic growth outside of the mortgage hustle and the housing inflation that it drove.
Meanwhile, Europe's weak sister banking systems are showing no sign of recovery. Spain is an example.
The crisis has been buried beneath optimistic financial and economic headlines, but it is still there, festering. Despite that, the ECB seems intent on finally ending QE. It has joined the Fed in the realization that QE has only caused asset bubbles and hasn't worked to stimulate real growth. As the ECB cuts QE and probably ends it later this year, liquidity will shrink, and so will the amount of European liquidity flowing into U.S. markets.

9 komentarzy:

  1. Jak pozycjonować się pod powtórkę z 2008?

  2. Jeśli ebc chce z tego wyjść z twarzą i wie że to nie działa to mnie oszukali a Mario to świetny aktor ;)

  3. Fed’s Crisis-Era, Bond-Buying Plan Was Largely Ineffective, Economists Say
    Research paper takes aim at central bank’s purchases of long-term Treasury and mortgage debt
    The Federal Reserve’s signature bond buying stimulus program undertaken during and in the wake of the financial crisis was largely a dud for the economy, argues a new paper authored by a group of prominent economists.

    The paper, which was to be presented Friday at a conference held in New York by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, takes aim at the central bank’s controversial purchases of long-term Treasury and mortgage debt.

  4. The paper presented at the conference was written by David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley , James Hamilton of the University of California San Diego, Ethan Harris of Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Kenneth West of the University of Wisconsin. It argues most of what people now believe of the asset purchases is likely wrong.

    “We find that Fed actions and announcements were not a dominant determinant of 10-year yields and that whatever the initial impact of some Fed actions or announcements, the effects tended not to persist,” the paper’s authors wrote. Their findings were based on a study of Fed policy announcements referenced against market reactions.
    William Dudley of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Eric Rosengren of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston both said on a panel discussing the paper’s findings that they agree it’s hard to understand the exact impact of the bond buying. But they said there’s nevertheless evidence the effort was helpful, and that the strategy should remain a part of the Fed’s policy toolkit going forward.

  5. fake news ? ;) "Draghi przekonany o konieczności dalszej stymulacji"


  6. Wszystko "biegnie" tak jak przewidziałem 10-ć lat temu i opisałem na blogu u "P.K".
    "CZARNA DZIURA BAŃKOWA" właśnie tak działa. Dodruk i ..... brak oczekiwanej inflacji = ujemny wzrost oprocentowania. Ile byś tam "wlewał" tyle wejdzie i nawet jeszcze więcej. Tzw. Aktywa dmuchane są i dmuchane ...
    A .... de'Bille to ci którzy spodziewali się czegoś innego!

    Teraz można tylko rzucać monetą:
    Wygrają ci obstawiający "reszkę" czy "orła"? A może nawet oba na raz, jak dotychczas, czyli dalszy druk w UE i USA?
    Jedno jest pewne:
    BAŃKA ma tą cechę, że zawsze pęka i niezależnie od tego kto i za pomocą jakich instrumentów ją nadmucha.
    BAŃKA zawsze pęka! Jak nie wcześniej to chwilę póżniej.

    Przypominam tylko, że Bańki w UE w 2008/9r miały "dziurę" kredytową nawet o 10 X większą niż te zza oceanu. Stąd wniosek, że .... BUUUMMM będzie tu, w UE i z hukiem.


  7. Short positioning in Treasury futures has climbed to a record

  8. LJ3 ameryki nie odkryłes ,jak tam dolar ,mam nadzieje że poza wychwalaniem jego potegi kilka miesięcy temu ,grosza na usd nie postawiłeś ?

  9. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/draghi-admits-he-cannot-stop-buying-govt-debt/#.WpcqiqK5Va0.twitter


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